Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …
Published . Updated .
This report is about inflation and prices.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-4.0% 16d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+14.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+12.7% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+10.6% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- KO The Coca-Cola+8.0% 30d
The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COSTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PGNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| KONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but … Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 25 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Procter & Gamble (PG) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 38 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern bought Coca Cola (KO) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TIP)
Companies tied to this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
In “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- XLP Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
In “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but ….” Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
In “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- KO Coca Cola
In “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …,” Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TIP)
On 2 Nov 2026, “Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TIP) to this story.
The link for Ishares Tr (TIP) is this: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is here too. Its reason reads: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TIP) price range
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. WMT traded between 103.39 and 124.28 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 123.51. XLP traded between 80.10 and 83.07 across 11 sessions. The latest close on file is 81.02.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TIP)
46 out of 100
“Does Growth in the Money Supply Predict U.S. Inflation? Yes, but …” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.