Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as Oil slips and Treasury yields pause
Published . Updated .
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This report is about oil and US interest rates.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | -1.94% | -3.49% | -1.69% | -0.79% |
| XLE | -2.19% | -1.69% | base | +0.46% | -1.57% | -1.24% | -0.87% |
| TLT | -2.31% | -1.35% | base | +0.43% | +0.40% | -0.40% | +0.26% |
| JPM | +0.58% | +1.08% | base | +0.76% | +1.28% | +2.33% | +3.53% |
| BAC | -0.32% | +0.51% | base | +0.00% | +0.24% | +0.65% | +1.44% |
| XOM | -2.72% | -2.80% | base | +0.41% | -1.64% | -0.62% | -0.44% |
| CVX | -3.75% | -2.77% | base | -0.65% | -2.02% | -1.69% | -0.77% |
| COP | -3.70% | -3.40% | base | +0.39% | -1.90% | -1.17% | -0.54% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as Oil slips and Treasury yields pause StoneX
Source: StoneX
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | that day | 0.00% | final price |
| BAC | the next day | +0.24% | final price |
| BAC | two days later | +0.65% | final price |
| BAC | three days later | +1.44% | final price |
| BAC | three days earlier | +0.51% | final price |
| BAC | five days earlier | -0.32% | final price |
| COP | that day | +0.39% | final price |
| COP | the next day | -1.90% | final price |
| COP | two days later | -1.17% | final price |
| COP | three days later | -0.54% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | -3.40% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -3.70% | final price |
| CVX | that day | -0.65% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | -2.02% | final price |
| CVX | two days later | -1.69% | final price |
| CVX | three days later | -0.77% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -3.75% | final price |
| JPM | that day | +0.76% | final price |
| JPM | the next day | +1.28% | final price |
| JPM | two days later | +2.33% | final price |
| JPM | three days later | +3.53% | final price |
| JPM | three days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| JPM | five days earlier | +0.58% | final price |
| TLT | that day | +0.43% | final price |
| TLT | the next day | +0.40% | final price |
| TLT | two days later | -0.40% | final price |
| TLT | three days later | +0.26% | final price |
| TLT | three days earlier | -1.35% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
| USO | that day | -1.94% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -3.49% | final price |
| USO | two days later | -1.69% | final price |
| USO | three days later | -0.79% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +0.46% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | -1.57% | final price |
| XLE | two days later | -1.24% | final price |
| XLE | three days later | -0.87% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -1.69% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -2.19% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +0.41% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | -1.64% | final price |
| XOM | two days later | -0.62% | final price |
| XOM | three days later | -0.44% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -2.80% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 11 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 55 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 11 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises as Oil slips and Treasury yields pause” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.