El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports
Published . Updated .
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Estimates suggest the current El Niño episode already may have caused a small, temporary bump in U.S. price levels. Here's why it could pose meaningful risk for inflation to increase in 2027, alongside rising employment. Estimates suggest the current El Niño episode already may
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.1% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-2.8% 14d
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+16.0% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale+15.7% 30d
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble+10.3% 30d
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- KO The Coca-Cola+8.2% 30d
The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.2% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | +0.16% | +0.57% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -0.09% | +0.94% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -4.79% | -1.04% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -3.61% | -0.67% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| PG | -2.31% | -0.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPM | +0.41% | -0.26% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports themortgagepoint.com
Source: themortgagepoint.com
Ishares Tr (TLT) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -0.67% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -3.61% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +0.41% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | three days earlier | -0.30% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | five days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.57% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.16% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -0.09% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | -1.04% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -4.79% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Procter & Gamble (PG) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern bought Coca Cola (KO) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
For “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
Ishares Tr (TLT) is the company in “El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports,” the 4 Nov 2026 this story story.
Ishares Tr (TLT) is on the page because iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“El Niño Poses ‘Meaningful Risk’ for Inflation to Rise in 2027, SF Fed Reports” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.