Geopolitics Alpha

Ep. 68: Lashed to the Mast: The Midterms and Tariffs; USMCA, Europe, China and Excess Capacity 301s

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Ep. 68: Lashed to the Mast: The Midterms and Tariffs; USMCA, Europe, China and Excess Capacity 301s

WITA’s signature summer event, the Annual Membership Dinner attracts hundreds of top decision makers, policy shapers, and trade experts from D.C. and around the world.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d

    Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF

    SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-6.8% 30d

    KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.

  • SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-16.4% 30d

    VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “china” (semiconductors) in this story.

  • FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-5.1% 30d

    iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).

  • VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF

    Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”).

  • CAT Caterpillar-26.6% 30d

    Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

  • DE Deere-1.1% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
XLI+3.03%+5.45%base+0.45%after closeafter closeafter close
XRT-2.55%-2.49%base-1.09%after closeafter closeafter close
KWEB-8.02%-5.90%base+0.81%after closeafter closeafter close
SMH+17.15%+16.15%base+3.88%after closeafter closeafter close
FXI-5.13%-4.93%base+0.26%after closeafter closeafter close
VGK-0.95%-0.91%base-0.76%after closeafter closeafter close
CAT+12.53%+12.71%base+1.39%after closeafter closeafter close
DE+1.76%+0.35%base+1.40%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Ep. 68: Lashed to the Mast: The Midterms and Tariffs; USMCA, Europe, China and Excess Capacity 301s Washington International Trade Association

Source: Washington International Trade Association

This story

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
CATthat day+1.39%still updating
CATthree days earlier+12.71%final price
CATfive days earlier+12.53%final price
DEthat day+1.40%still updating
DEthree days earlier+0.35%final price
DEfive days earlier+1.76%final price
FXIthat day+0.26%still updating
FXIthree days earlier-4.93%final price
FXIfive days earlier-5.13%final price
KWEBthat day+0.81%still updating
KWEBthree days earlier-5.90%final price
KWEBfive days earlier-8.02%final price
SMHthat day+3.88%still updating
SMHthree days earlier+16.15%final price
SMHfive days earlier+17.15%final price
VGKthat day-0.76%still updating
VGKthree days earlier-0.91%final price
VGKfive days earlier-0.95%final price
XLIthat day+0.45%still updating
XLIthree days earlier+5.45%final price
XLIfive days earlier+3.03%final price
XRTthat day-1.09%still updating
XRTthree days earlier-2.49%final price
XRTfive days earlier-2.55%final price

This story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

This story

12 out of 100Price not final

“Ep. 68: Lashed to the Mast: The Midterms and Tariffs; USMCA, Europe, China and Excess Capacity 301s” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.