Geopolitics Alpha

Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: USO, BWET, VGK, XOM, CVX
  • Market reaction: BWET −12.0% on the day (still updating); USO −2.5% on the day (still updating); XLE −3.7% on the day (still updating)

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ENERGY · STRAIT OF HORMUZEurope Faces Lowest Storage LevelsSince 2013 as Hormuz Crisis CutsGlobal LNG SupplyGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about natural gas and oil. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-16.0% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “lng” (natural gas) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “lng” (natural gas) in this story.

  • USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “lng” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF

    Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”).

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+2.0% 16d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+9.6% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story.

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d

    Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
UNG+4.28%-0.44%base-0.22%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE+2.64%+4.95%base-3.73%after closeafter closeafter close
USO+5.38%+6.75%base-2.52%after closeafter closeafter close
BWET+7.18%+11.56%base-12.01%after closeafter closeafter close
VGK-0.30%-0.05%base+2.59%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+2.57%+5.49%base-2.82%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+1.76%+4.58%base-2.69%after closeafter closeafter close
OXY+4.03%+5.88%base-3.63%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply Natural Gas Intelligence

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence

How United States Oil Fund (USO) moved after the last 19 energy shocks

Across 19 earlier stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day averaged +1.40%. The largest gain was +3.26% and the largest drop was +0.26%, from 19 prices.

CompanyWhenAverageLargest gainLargest dropPrices
United States Oil Fund (USO)the next day+1.40%+3.26%+0.26%19
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days later-1.27%+6.12%-5.11%17
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)the next day+2.90%+4.46%+0.48%16
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)three days later+1.15%+4.59%-6.70%16
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)the next day+0.71%+3.00%-1.33%19
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days later+0.63%+3.38%-2.51%17

How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 4 Nov 2026

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)that day-12.01%still updating
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)three days earlier+11.56%final price
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)five days earlier+7.18%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day-2.69%still updating
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+4.58%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+1.76%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)that day-3.63%still updating
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)three days earlier+5.88%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)five days earlier+4.03%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)that day-0.22%still updating
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)three days earlier-0.44%final price
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)five days earlier+4.28%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day-2.52%still updating
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+6.75%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+5.38%final price
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)that day+2.59%still updating
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)three days earlier-0.05%final price
Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK)five days earlier-0.30%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day-3.73%still updating
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier+4.95%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+2.64%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day-2.82%still updating
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+5.49%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+2.57%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Strait of Hormuz, seven days against thirty

Strait of Hormuz

Geopolitics Alpha has 195 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 510 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.

Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Likely winners

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    For “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    In “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply.” Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story

  • BWET Amplify Commodity Trust

    Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “lng” (tanker shipping) in this story

  • VGK Vanguard Intl Equity Index F

    For “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” Vanguard Intl Equity Index F (VGK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF holds stocks listed in Europe, which this story is about (“europe”)

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    In “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “lng” (natural gas) in this story

How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply,” the 4 Nov 2026 Strait of Hormuz story.

The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “lng” (oil) in this story

Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is here too. Its reason reads: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “lng” (tanker shipping) in this story

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How solid the energy case looks

54 out of 100Price not final

“Europe Faces Lowest Storage Levels Since 2013 as Hormuz Crisis Cuts Global LNG Supply” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.