Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month
Published . Updated .
The market expects oil to keep rising, but treasury yields have declined, a warning traders and investors may be more worried about an AI crash than inflation.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-2.6% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “treasury yields” (US interest rates) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- MSFT Microsoft+4.0% 30d
Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -0.20% | -1.03% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MSFTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COP | -1.71% | -3.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month CNBC
Source: CNBC
The price since 1 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -3.24% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -1.71% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| TLT | three days earlier | -1.03% | final price |
| TLT | five days earlier | -0.20% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Microsoft (MSFT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 30 Sep 2026. That is 32 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli sold Microsoft (MSFT), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Alphabet (GOOGL), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 18 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.” Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it holds the big tech and AI names. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- MSFT Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.” Reason on file: Microsoft (prepackaged software): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- GOOGL Alphabet
Alphabet (GOOGL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.” Reason on file: Alphabet (computer programming, data processing, etc.): big tech's AI spending and demand drive its shares. Linked by “ai” (AI and big tech) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month,” the 1 Nov 2026 Energy story.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
QQQ traded between 683.47 and 762.84 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 690.51. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00.
How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.