Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%
Published . Updated .
Hot inflation data and a midterm election six days away leave the Fed with what one mortgage executive calls “a massive conundrum.”
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.9% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLRE Real Estate Select Sector SPDR-1.3% 30d
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR: it holds property and homebuilding stocks. Linked by “mortgage” (real estate) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-5.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-15.0% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton-4.1% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -2.31% | -1.35% | base | +0.45% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -1.06% | -0.90% | base | +0.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLRENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPM | +0.58% | +1.08% | base | +1.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | -0.32% | +0.51% | base | +0.43% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | -8.25% | -5.74% | base | -0.88% | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | -1.11% | +1.14% | base | -0.87% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70% InvestmentNews
Source: InvestmentNews
The price since 26 Oct 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | +0.43% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | +0.51% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | -0.32% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | that day | -0.88% | still updating |
| Horton D R (DHI) | three days earlier | -5.74% | final price |
| Horton D R (DHI) | five days earlier | -8.25% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | +0.08% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | -0.90% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -1.06% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | +1.07% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +0.58% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | that day | -0.87% | still updating |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | three days earlier | +1.14% | final price |
| Schwab Charles (SCHW) | five days earlier | -1.11% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | +0.45% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -1.35% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%.” Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
For “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
For “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%,” Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
For “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
How “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%” reaches Ishares Tr (TLT)
On 26 Oct 2026, “Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TLT) to this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TLT) price range
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 344.37 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 331.52. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Fed likely to hold this week, but December hike odds top 70%” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.