Geopolitics Alpha

From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • A Ukrainian arms maker said Kyiv has hit refineries responsible for a third of Russia’s refining capacity.
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, CRAK, UNG, XOM
  • Market reaction: USO +3.4% on the day; XLE +1.5% on the day; VLO +3.1% on the day

Market Call

Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.

Get these market calls by email

The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.

Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.

From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries

A Ukrainian arms maker said Kyiv has hit refineries responsible for a third of Russia’s refining capacity.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF

    VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.2% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “arms” (defense) in this story.

  • VLO Valero Energy-11.1% 30d

    Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum+2.5% 17d

    Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

  • PSX Phillips 66-2.1% 30d

    Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
CRAK-1.31%-1.48%base+0.70%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE-2.64%-2.21%base+1.50%after closeafter closeafter close
USO+4.74%+0.82%base+3.43%after closeafter closeafter close
ITA-7.07%-2.20%base-2.16%after closeafter closeafter close
VLO-3.44%-1.90%base+3.10%after closeafter closeafter close
MPC-6.26%-3.19%base+2.55%after closeafter closeafter close
PSX-4.47%-2.07%base+1.69%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM-0.81%-1.14%base+1.84%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries Kyiv Post

Source: Kyiv Post

United States Oil Fund (USO) since this story, compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)that day+0.70%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)three days earlier-1.48%final price
Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK)five days earlier-1.31%final price
ITAthat day-2.16%final price
ITAthree days earlier-2.20%final price
ITAfive days earlier-7.07%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)that day+2.55%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)three days earlier-3.19%final price
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)five days earlier-6.26%final price
PSXthat day+1.69%final price
PSXthree days earlier-2.07%final price
PSXfive days earlier-4.47%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day+3.43%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+0.82%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+4.74%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)that day+3.10%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)three days earlier-1.90%final price
Valero Energy (VLO)five days earlier-3.44%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.50%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-2.21%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-2.64%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.84%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier-1.14%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-0.81%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who collects and who pays in energy

Companies carried with this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust

    For “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries.” Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russia” (natural gas) in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • VLO Valero Energy

    For “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries,” Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story

  • MPC Marathon Petroleum

    For “From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries,” Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refineries” (refining) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

“From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries” (12 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.

The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story

USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How solid the energy case looks

46 out of 100

“From Saratov to Siberia – Ukraine Reports Long-Range Strikes on Russia’s 5 Largest Oil Refineries” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.