Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- For months, midterm polls have shown that US voters were angry about soaring gas prices linked to Trump's Iran war, and the crushing cost-of-living from tariffs and inflation - even as the president focused elsewhere.
- Exposed: UNG, XLE, XLI, USO, OXY
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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For months, midterm polls have shown that US voters were angry about soaring gas prices linked to Trump's Iran war, and the crushing cost-of-living from tariffs and inflation - even as the president focused elsewhere. JR Duren explores the Election Day reckoning that unfolded in
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-16.0% 30d
United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story.
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “gas prices” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-23.2% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- LNG Cheniere Energy+13.7% 30d
Cheniere Energy (natural gas distribution): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story.
- EQT Eqt+7.8% 30d
Eqt (crude petroleum and natural gas): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNG | -1.02% | -2.91% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +8.14% | +5.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLI | +0.40% | +0.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | +15.71% | +7.84% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +9.89% | +5.90% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +9.45% | +3.80% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| LNG | +9.22% | +6.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| EQTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price The Independent
Source: The Independent
Price since this story was published: United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | +3.80% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +9.45% | final price |
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | three days earlier | +6.72% | final price |
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | five days earlier | +9.22% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | three days earlier | +5.90% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | five days earlier | +9.89% | final price |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | three days earlier | -2.91% | final price |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | five days earlier | -1.02% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.84% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +15.71% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +5.85% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +8.14% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | +0.18% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | +0.40% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold EQT (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought EQT, worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold EQT (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
Companies that tend to gain
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price.” Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): gas producers and exporters earn more when gas prices rise. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story
No up or down call on file
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price.” Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price.” Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “gas prices” (oil) in this story
How defense news reaches United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is the company in “Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price,” the 4 Nov 2026 Defense story.
The link for United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is this: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “gas prices” (natural gas) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
UNG traded between 8.95 and 11.43 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 9.12. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
What the saved facts support for United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
46 out of 100
“Gas prices, tariffs, Iran war - Trump ignored voters’ real pain and paid the price” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.