Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows
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Global carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action. Instead, it's high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that's driving the trend.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.0% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+5.4% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+2.7% 10d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +10.89% | +3.88% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +0.66% | -4.98% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +44.12% | +15.72% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.86% | +1.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +7.34% | +0.71% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +5.41% | +1.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows DW.com
Source: DW.com
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 10 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +15.72% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +44.12% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +0.71% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +7.34% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.86% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -4.98% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +0.66% | final price |
| SHEL | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | +5.41% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.88% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +10.89% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
For “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
“Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows” (10 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Global emissions set to dip, driven by Iran war oil shock, study shows” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.