Geopolitics Alpha

Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Global oil prices have fallen amid the US midterm elections and their potential impact on peace negotiations between Tehran and
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, XOM, CVX, COP
  • Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.

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Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections

Global oil prices have fallen amid the US midterm elections and their potential impact on peace negotiations between Tehran and

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+2.0% 16d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+9.6% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d

    Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+11.6% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • FRO Frontline+10.3% 30d

    Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+5.38%+6.75%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XLE+2.64%+4.95%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
BWET+7.18%+11.56%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XOM+2.57%+5.49%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
CVX+1.76%+4.58%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
OXY+4.03%+5.88%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
COP+3.21%+6.66%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
FRO+5.87%+8.47%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections 8AM Media

Source: 8AM Media

Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
BWETthree days earlier+11.56%final price
BWETfive days earlier+7.18%final price
Conocophillips (COP)three days earlier+6.66%final price
Conocophillips (COP)five days earlier+3.21%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+4.58%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+1.76%final price
FROthree days earlier+8.47%final price
FROfive days earlier+5.87%final price
OXYthree days earlier+5.88%final price
OXYfive days earlier+4.03%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+6.75%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+5.38%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier+4.95%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier+2.64%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+5.49%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+2.57%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies that tend to gain

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    In “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • SHEL Shell

    For “Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link

“Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections” (4 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.

What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range

USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XOM traded between 172.72 and 188.47 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 177.51.

The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Global Oil Prices Fall Amid US Midterm Elections” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.