Gold Falls Below $4,000 Threshold as Oil Surge and Hot Inflation Data Lift December Rate-Hike Odds to 75%
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and gold.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares-3.7% 30d
SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.5% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.6% 15d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- NEM Newmont-13.4% 30d
Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines-7.6% 30d
Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +0.80% | -2.73% | base | +0.39% | -6.80% | after close | after close |
| XLE | +0.88% | -0.71% | base | +1.87% | -2.12% | after close | after close |
| GLD | -0.54% | +1.01% | base | -3.47% | -1.90% | after close | after close |
| TIP | -0.20% | -0.13% | base | +0.23% | -0.06% | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.03% | -1.79% | base | +2.24% | -1.85% | after close | after close |
| NEM | -2.65% | +0.77% | base | -4.66% | -2.40% | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.78% | -1.37% | base | +1.82% | -1.43% | after close | after close |
| AEM | -0.97% | +2.88% | base | -5.89% | -2.98% | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Gold Falls Below $4,000 Threshold as Oil Surge and Hot Inflation Data Lift December Rate-Hike Odds to 75% BigGo Finance
Source: BigGo Finance
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEM | that day | -5.89% | final price |
| AEM | the next day | -2.98% | final price |
| AEM | three days earlier | +2.88% | final price |
| AEM | five days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| CVX | that day | +1.82% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | -1.43% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -1.37% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | +0.78% | final price |
| GLD | that day | -3.47% | final price |
| GLD | the next day | -1.90% | final price |
| GLD | three days earlier | +1.01% | final price |
| GLD | five days earlier | -0.54% | final price |
| NEM | that day | -4.66% | final price |
| NEM | the next day | -2.40% | final price |
| NEM | three days earlier | +0.77% | final price |
| NEM | five days earlier | -2.65% | final price |
| TIP | that day | +0.23% | final price |
| TIP | the next day | -0.06% | final price |
| TIP | three days earlier | -0.13% | final price |
| TIP | five days earlier | -0.20% | final price |
| USO | that day | +0.39% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -6.80% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -2.73% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +0.80% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +1.87% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | -2.12% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -0.71% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +0.88% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +2.24% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | -1.85% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -1.79% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +0.03% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 16 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Newmont (NEM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 16 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Gold Falls Below $4,000 Threshold as Oil Surge and Hot Inflation Data Lift December Rate-Hike Odds to 75%” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.