Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics
Published . Updated .
Gold's record rally above $5,600 has given way to caution in late 2026. U.S. Bank's Rob Haworth explains why central banks focused on energy security, Fed tightening and a strong dollar are keeping gold under pressure until the Iran conflict clears.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares-3.3% 30d
SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF-14.8% 30d
VanEck Gold Miners ETF: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-15.0% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- NEM Newmont-11.5% 30d
Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase-5.3% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines-12.0% 30d
Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GDXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TLT | -1.92% | +0.06% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -3.36% | -2.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BACNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NEMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| AEMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics IndexBox
Source: IndexBox
Price since this story was published: Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -1.92% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -3.36% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Newmont (NEM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
Companies carried with this story
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
For “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- GDX Vaneck Etf Trust
In “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Vaneck Etf Trust (GDX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Gold Miners ETF: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- NEM Newmont
In “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Newmont (NEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines
For “Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics,” Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
“Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics” (26 Oct 2026) reaches Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) through this story.
The link for Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is this: SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
Vaneck Etf Trust (GDX) is here too. Its reason reads: VanEck Gold Miners ETF: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
Dates and price levels for Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
GDX traded between 78.92 and 89.70 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 80.20. GLD traded between 373.41 and 400.78 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 379.67. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How strong the case is around Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
46 out of 100
“Gold Outlook 2026: Central Bank Demand Stalls Amid Iran Conflict, Fed Tightening - News and Statistics” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.