Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- Goldman Sachs has pushed its Fed rate-hike forecast to March after a third straight month of upside inflation surprises, aligning closer with Deutsche Bank and now projecting rate cuts to begin in December 2027.
- Exposed: TLT, IEF, TIP, WMT, JPM
- Market reaction: TLT −0.5% on the day (still updating); IEF −0.3% on the day (still updating); COST +1.1% on the day (still updating)
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Goldman Sachs has pushed its Fed rate-hike forecast to March after a third straight month of upside inflation surprises, aligning closer with Deutsche Bank and now projecting rate cuts to begin in December 2027.
Directly affected
- GS Goldman Sachs Group+0.6% 30d
Named in this report.
- DB Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft-6.2% 8d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 19d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-0.1% 19d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF+0.4% 19d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR+1.0% 19d
Financial Select Sector SPDR: it holds banks. Linked by “bank” (banks) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+6.8% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | +1.98% | -4.87% | base | +1.42% | after close | after close | after close |
| DB | -1.02% | -6.06% | base | +0.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| TLT | +1.08% | +1.27% | base | -0.48% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | +0.67% | +0.89% | base | -0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +0.74% | +0.94% | base | -0.05% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLF | +1.53% | -1.92% | base | -0.19% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | +1.83% | -2.53% | base | -0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | +2.98% | -2.21% | base | -0.11% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHI | +4.91% | +1.71% | base | -1.88% | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHW | +0.36% | -1.66% | base | -0.84% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics IndexBox
Source: IndexBox
The price since 11 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | -0.28% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -2.53% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | +1.83% | final price |
| DB | that day | +0.07% | still updating |
| DB | three days earlier | -6.06% | final price |
| DB | five days earlier | -1.02% | final price |
| DHI | that day | -1.88% | still updating |
| DHI | three days earlier | +1.71% | final price |
| DHI | five days earlier | +4.91% | final price |
| GS | that day | +1.42% | still updating |
| GS | three days earlier | -4.87% | final price |
| GS | five days earlier | +1.98% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | -0.28% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.89% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | +0.67% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | -0.11% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -2.21% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | +2.98% | final price |
| SCHW | that day | -0.84% | still updating |
| SCHW | three days earlier | -1.66% | final price |
| SCHW | five days earlier | +0.36% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.05% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.94% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.74% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | -0.48% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | +1.27% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | +1.08% | final price |
| XLF | that day | -0.19% | still updating |
| XLF | three days earlier | -1.92% | final price |
| XLF | five days earlier | +1.53% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 3 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TLT)
Companies tied to this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
For “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 11 Nov 2026 story “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
In “Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics,” Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TLT)
“Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics” (11 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Ishares Tr (IEF) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TLT) price range
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Goldman Sachs Sees March Fed Hike as Inflation Surprises Persist - News and Statistics” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.