Goldman Sachs: We can explain almost the entire US inflation overshoot by tariffs and the war in Iran
Published . Updated .
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The White House is faced with a problem of its own doing
Directly affected
- GS Goldman Sachs Group
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | -5.21% | -0.36% | base | -0.86% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLI | -3.98% | -0.39% | base | -0.80% | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | -1.32% | +1.93% | base | -0.17% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.72% | +1.00% | base | -0.52% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +1.44% | +0.49% | base | +0.04% | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | -7.69% | -3.42% | base | -1.59% | after close | after close | after close |
| DE | -0.82% | +1.30% | base | -0.55% | after close | after close | after close |
| WMT | -0.55% | -0.53% | base | +1.39% | after close | after close | after close |
| NKE | +2.17% | +2.36% | base | +0.74% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Goldman Sachs: We can explain almost the entire US inflation overshoot by tariffs and the war in Iran investingLive
Source: investingLive
Defense
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | that day | -1.59% | still updating |
| CAT | three days earlier | -3.42% | final price |
| CAT | five days earlier | -7.69% | final price |
| DE | that day | -0.55% | still updating |
| DE | three days earlier | +1.30% | final price |
| DE | five days earlier | -0.82% | final price |
| GS | that day | -0.86% | still updating |
| GS | three days earlier | -0.36% | final price |
| GS | five days earlier | -5.21% | final price |
| ITA | that day | -0.52% | still updating |
| ITA | three days earlier | +1.00% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -3.72% | final price |
| NKE | that day | +0.74% | still updating |
| NKE | three days earlier | +2.36% | final price |
| NKE | five days earlier | +2.17% | final price |
| TIP | that day | +0.04% | still updating |
| TIP | three days earlier | +0.49% | final price |
| TIP | five days earlier | +1.44% | final price |
| WMT | that day | +1.39% | still updating |
| WMT | three days earlier | -0.53% | final price |
| WMT | five days earlier | -0.55% | final price |
| XLI | that day | -0.80% | still updating |
| XLI | three days earlier | -0.39% | final price |
| XLI | five days earlier | -3.98% | final price |
| XRT | that day | -0.17% | still updating |
| XRT | three days earlier | +1.93% | final price |
| XRT | five days earlier | -1.32% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar sold Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael Rulli bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 3 Sep 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 2 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Goldman Sachs Group (GS), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 46 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 77 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Goldman Sachs: We can explain almost the entire US inflation overshoot by tariffs and the war in Iran” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.