Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update
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This report is about oil and tanker shipping. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+8.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+0.3% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+8.7% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+6.2% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story.
- DHT DHT Holdings
DHT Holdings (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+12.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.37% | +7.30% | base | +0.28% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +1.44% | +2.16% | base | -0.19% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | -1.54% | +2.86% | base | -8.08% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -3.96% | -0.11% | base | +1.62% | after close | after close | after close |
| FRO | +3.34% | +8.65% | base | -1.21% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.06% | +1.89% | base | -0.88% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHT | +1.11% | +5.11% | base | -1.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.19% | +1.58% | base | -0.75% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update American Journal of Transportation
Earlier energy stories for United States Oil Fund (USO): 19 cases
Those 19 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of -1.45% the next day. Largest gain +3.26%, largest drop -3.69%, from 19 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -1.45% | +3.26% | -3.69% | 19 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | +0.41% | +6.12% | -1.37% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -1.35% | +3.24% | -1.69% | 19 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.05% | +2.27% | -0.87% | 19 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | the next day | +0.26% | +0.48% | +0.12% | 15 |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days later | +4.59% | +4.59% | +4.59% | 15 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | the next day | +1.37% | +1.91% | +0.30% | 3 |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days later | +4.42% | +5.99% | +1.28% | 3 |
- US paying most for Hormuz oil shock with world’s largest fuel bill
- U.S. Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels of Oil Out of Hormuz
- QatarEnergy in talks to buy up to 3 MMtpy from Woodside's Louisiana LNG as Hormuz disruptions persist
- Container ship sinks near the Strait of Hormuz as shipping attacks increase
- The Week in Charts: Crude tankers in correction mode after Hormuz-driven ‘super spike’ | Africa’s LNG ambitions grow as Hormuz disruption exposes supply risk
- US says helped Gulf nations export 1.5 billion barrels of oil through Hormuz
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 3 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -8.08% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +2.86% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.75% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +0.19% | final price |
| DHT | that day | -1.07% | still updating |
| DHT | three days earlier | +5.11% | final price |
| DHT | five days earlier | +1.11% | final price |
| FRO | that day | -1.21% | still updating |
| FRO | three days earlier | +8.65% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | +3.34% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | +1.62% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.11% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -3.96% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +0.28% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.30% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.37% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -0.19% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +2.16% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +1.44% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -0.88% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +1.89% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 20 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 41 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where this story sits: Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitics Alpha has 190 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 497 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
The side that tends to collect
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
In “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 3 Nov 2026 story “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
“Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update” (3 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Strait of Hormuz.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “opec” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 156.89. XLE traded between 62.95 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.26.
The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Hormuz flows recover but conflict risk persists as OPEC holds December output steady - Rystad Energy’s Market Update” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.