How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk
Published . Updated .
The IEA estimates that fully enforcing China’s expanded controls on rare earth exports could put $6.5 trillion in annual industrial output outside China...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF-12.3% 30d
VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF-15.7% 30d
iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- REMX VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF-28.8% 30d
VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: it holds rare-earth and critical-mineral producers. Linked by “rare earth” (rare earths) in this story.
- KWEB KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF-4.6% 30d
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story.
- FXI iShares China Large-Cap ETF-5.0% 30d
iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”).
- ASML ASML Holding N.V+1.0% 18d
ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- NVDA Nvidia-9.9% 30d
Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing-8.8% 30d
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMHNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SOXXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| REMXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| KWEBNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FXINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ASML | +1.58% | +6.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NVDA | +5.49% | +5.17% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TSM | +4.53% | +8.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk Operativ Məlumat Mərkəzi
Source: Operativ Məlumat Mərkəzi
The price since 1 Nov 2026: Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asml Holding (ASML) | three days earlier | +6.31% | final price |
| Asml Holding (ASML) | five days earlier | +1.58% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | three days earlier | +5.17% | final price |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | five days earlier | +5.49% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | three days earlier | +8.29% | final price |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) | five days earlier | +4.53% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Asml Holding (ASML) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 9 days before publication. Filed 28 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul bought Asml Holding (ASML) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 7 Aug 2026. That is 86 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Nvidia (NVDA), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 1 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Nvidia (NVDA) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Cleo Fields bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Oct 2026. That is 23 days before publication. Filed 22 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
Companies tied to this story
- SMH Vaneck Etf Trust
In “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- SOXX Ishares Tr
For “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Ishares Tr (SOXX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- KWEB Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf
In “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Kraneshares Csi China Internet Etf (KWEB) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF: it holds Chinese internet companies. Linked by “china” (Chinese tech) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “china” (retail and consumer goods) in this story
- FXI Ishares China Large-Cap Etf
In “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Ishares China Large-Cap Etf (FXI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares China Large-Cap ETF holds stocks listed in China, which this story is about (“china”)
- ASML Asml Holding
For “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Asml Holding (ASML) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ASML Holding N.V (special industry machinery): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- NVDA Nvidia
Nvidia (NVDA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk.” Reason on file: Nvidia (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
- TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
In “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk,” Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (semiconductors and related devices): chip demand, export rules and supply drive chipmakers' shares. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
The 1 Nov 2026 story “How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk” names Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) because of this story.
The link for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH) is this: VanEck Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
Ishares Tr (SOXX) is here too. Its reason reads: iShares Semiconductor ETF: it holds chipmakers. Linked by “export controls” (semiconductors) in this story
Price levels for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
KWEB traded between 22.90 and 25.02 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 23.13. SMH traded between 511.68 and 639.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 522.89. SOXX traded between 460.13 and 596.35 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 471.44.
A simple score for Vaneck Etf Trust (SMH)
46 out of 100
“How China’s mineral export controls could put $6.5 trillion in output at risk” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.