How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows
Published . Updated .
How do midterm elections affect the stock market? Explore historical returns, election-year volatility and what investors should know ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF-1.1% 30d
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- QQQ Invesco QQQ-2.0% 30d
Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- IWM iShares Russell 2000 ETF-2.2% 30d
iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
- VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA | +1.17% | +1.48% | base | +0.60% | after close | after close | after close |
| QQQ | +3.12% | +5.08% | base | -1.30% | after close | after close | after close |
| IWM | -0.87% | +0.69% | base | +0.06% | after close | after close | after close |
| RSP | -0.47% | -0.39% | base | +0.77% | after close | after close | after close |
| VTI | +1.04% | +2.02% | base | -0.35% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows Chase Bank
Source: Chase Bank
The price since 2 Nov 2026: Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | that day | +0.60% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | three days earlier | +1.48% | final price |
| Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) | five days earlier | +1.17% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IWM) | that day | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IWM) | three days earlier | +0.69% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IWM) | five days earlier | -0.87% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | that day | -1.30% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | three days earlier | +5.08% | final price |
| Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) | five days earlier | +3.12% | final price |
| Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) | that day | +0.77% | final price |
| Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) | three days earlier | -0.39% | final price |
| Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) | five days earlier | -0.47% | final price |
| Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) | that day | -0.35% | final price |
| Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) | three days earlier | +2.02% | final price |
| Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) | five days earlier | +1.04% | final price |
Who gains and who loses around Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
Companies mentioned with this story
- DIA Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust
In “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows,” Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- QQQ Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
In “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows,” Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- IWM Ishares Tr
In “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows,” Ishares Tr (IWM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares Russell 2000 ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- RSP Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T
For “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows,” Invesco Exchange Traded Fd T (RSP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
- VTI Vanguard Index Fds
For “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows,” Vanguard Index Fds (VTI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
The 2 Nov 2026 story “How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows” names Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) because of this story.
What ties Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA) to the headline is this: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Also listed, Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 (QQQ): Invesco QQQ: it is a broad US stock-market fund. Linked by “stock market” (the broad US market) in this story
Price levels for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
DIA traded between 504.92 and 522.62 across 18 sessions. The latest close on file is 515.65. IWM traded between 269.88 and 285.25 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 279.37. QQQ traded between 683.47 and 762.84 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 690.51.
A simple score for Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average Etf Trust (DIA)
40 out of 100
“How do midterm elections affect the stock market? What history shows” scores 40 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 5 linked companies.