How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc
Published . Updated .
If the governments of Australia cannot execute a meaningful cut in government spending quick smart, a real interest rate above 3 per cent cannot be ruled out.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- EWA iShares MSCI Australia ETF+2.2% 30d
iShares MSCI Australia ETF holds stocks listed in Australia, which this story is about (“australia”).
- BWX SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF
SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF holds government bonds outside the US, which react to inflation and interest-rate news like this one in Australia
- EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF-2.2% 11d
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF is a broad fund of developed-market stocks that includes Australia
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BWXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EFANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc AFR
Source: AFR
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman sold EFA (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 4 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Laurel Lee sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 16 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc”
Companies carried with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
For “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc,” Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc.” Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc.” Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
In “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- DHI Horton D R
Horton D R (DHI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc.” Reason on file: D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
- SCHW Schwab Charles
In “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc,” Schwab Charles (SCHW) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
How “How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc” reaches Ishares Tr (TLT)
“How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc” (1 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
For Ishares Tr (TLT), the reason on file says iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
A second company, Ishares Tr (IEF), is listed for a different reason: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “interest rates” (US interest rates) in this story
Price levels for Ishares Tr (TLT)
IEF traded between 88.64 and 91.23 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. JPM traded between 325.12 and 345.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 337.10. TLT traded between 76.44 and 81.94 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
How strong the case is around Ishares Tr (TLT)
46 out of 100
“How high can interest rates go? Try much higher than 4.85pc” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.