How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?
Published . Updated .
A ten percent jump in oil prices - if it happens - maps into a four percent drop in gold
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- GLD SPDR Gold Shares-3.3% 30d
SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- NEM Newmont-13.4% 30d
Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines-7.6% 30d
Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| GLDNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITA | -1.26% | -0.97% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CVXNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NEMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| AEMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War? Robin J Brooks | Substack
Source: Robin J Brooks | Substack
Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) since “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -1.26% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Newmont (NEM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros bought Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in defense
Companies mentioned with this story
- GLD Spdr Gold Trust
For “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- GDX Vaneck Etf Trust
In “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” Vaneck Etf Trust (GDX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Gold Miners ETF: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- NEM Newmont
For “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” Newmont (NEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Newmont (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- AEM Agnico Eagle Mines
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?.” Reason on file: Agnico Eagle Mines (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- WPM Wheaton Precious Metals
For “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Wheaton Precious Metals (gold and silver ores): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
- GOLD Gold.com
Gold.com (GOLD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 1 Nov 2026 story “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?.” Reason on file: Gold.com (jewelry, watches, precious stones and metals): gold miners' profits move with the gold price. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
How “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?” reaches Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is the company in “How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?,” the 1 Nov 2026 Defense story.
The link for Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) is this: SPDR Gold Shares: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
Vaneck Etf Trust (GDX) is here too. Its reason reads: VanEck Gold Miners ETF: it follows gold or gold miners. Linked by “gold” (gold) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Spdr Gold Trust (GLD) price range
GDX traded between 78.92 and 89.70 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.13. GLD traded between 373.41 and 400.78 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 379.67. ITA traded between 197.59 and 215.76 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 209.72.
The defense score for Spdr Gold Trust (GLD)
46 out of 100
“How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.