Geopolitics Alpha

How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Speaking to Fox News following the midterm elections, US President Donald Trump admitted that inflation was likely one reason Republicans did poorly.
  • Exposed: ITA, XAR, TIP, WMT, COST
  • Market reaction: XAR −3.6% on the day; ITA −1.7% on the day; WMT +4.2% on the day

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How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms

Speaking to Fox News following the midterm elections, US President Donald Trump admitted that inflation was likely one reason Republicans did poorly. Many Americans have been frustrated with how the…

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.1% 30d

    iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR-2.8% 14d

    Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.

  • WMT Walmart+12.9% 30d

    Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • COST Costco Wholesale+12.7% 30d

    Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • PG The Procter & Gamble+9.2% 30d

    The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

  • KO The Coca-Cola+7.6% 30d

    The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
TIP+0.16%+0.57%base-0.03%after closeafter closeafter close
XLP-2.35%+0.52%base+3.46%after closeafter closeafter close
ITA-4.02%-3.08%base-1.67%after closeafter closeafter close
WMT-4.79%-1.04%base+4.22%after closeafter closeafter close
COST-3.61%-0.67%base+2.66%after closeafter closeafter close
PG-2.31%-0.30%base+3.29%after closeafter closeafter close
KO-3.14%-0.70%base+1.49%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms France 24

Source: France 24

Price since this story was published: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Costco Wholesale (COST)that day+2.66%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)three days earlier-0.67%final price
Costco Wholesale (COST)five days earlier-3.61%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)that day-1.67%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days earlier-3.08%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)five days earlier-4.02%final price
Coca Cola (KO)that day+1.49%final price
Coca Cola (KO)three days earlier-0.70%final price
Coca Cola (KO)five days earlier-3.14%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)that day+3.29%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)three days earlier-0.30%final price
Procter & Gamble (PG)five days earlier-2.31%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)that day-0.03%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)three days earlier+0.57%final price
Ishares Tr (TIP)five days earlier+0.16%final price
Walmart (WMT)that day+4.22%final price
Walmart (WMT)three days earlier-1.04%final price
Walmart (WMT)five days earlier-4.79%final price
XLPthat day+3.46%final price
XLPthree days earlier+0.52%final price
XLPfive days earlier-2.35%final price

Congressional trades in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    In “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

  • XAR Spdr Series Trust

    In “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

  • TIP Ishares Tr

    Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms.” Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • WMT Walmart

    For “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • COST Costco Wholesale

    For “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • PG Procter & Gamble

    Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms.” Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

  • KO Coca Cola

    In “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the defense link

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the company in “How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms,” the 4 Nov 2026 Defense story.

The link for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is this: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

Spdr Series Trust (XAR) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

Dates in the story, and the IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) price range

ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. XAR traded between 210.89 and 237.55 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 231.04.

A simple score for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

46 out of 100

“How Trump's broken promises on war, inflation handed Democrats the midterms” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 7 linked companies.