IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- IEA's November 2026 report sees global oil demand contracting 2.7 million bpd to 102.3 million bpd in 2026, narrowing through Q4 before a 2 million bpd rebound in 2027 led by petrochemical feedstocks, with the market returning to surplus.
- Exposed: USO, XLE, XOM, CVX, COP
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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IEA's November 2026 report sees global oil demand contracting 2.7 million bpd to 102.3 million bpd in 2026, narrowing through Q4 before a 2 million bpd rebound in 2027 led by petrochemical feedstocks, with the market returning to surplus.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.4% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+4.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.0% 6d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -2.03% | -2.82% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -4.57% | -2.42% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -3.42% | -2.31% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -4.09% | -2.99% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -5.48% | -3.22% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | -0.22% | -1.24% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics IndexBox
Source: IndexBox
How far United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved since 14 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -3.22% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -5.48% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.99% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -4.09% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | three days earlier | -1.24% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | five days earlier | -0.22% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.82% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -2.03% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.42% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -4.57% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.31% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -3.42% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 52 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 14 Nov 2026 story “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
For “IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
“IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics” (14 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Energy.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70. XOM traded between 167.40 and 188.47 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.46.
How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“IEA November 2026 Report: Oil Demand Down 2.7 Million bpd in 2026, Up 2 Million bpd in 2027 - News and Statistics” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.