IEA: Oil Market to Swing Into Surplus in Q4 2026 | Brent Falls to $95.71
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The IEA expects the oil market to return to surplus in Q4 2026, with supply 1.7 million bpd above demand as Gulf exports recover. Brent slipped 0.1% to $95.71 after the report.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+4.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.8% 7d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+1.6% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +1.59% | -3.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -4.15% | -3.23% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.28% | -3.14% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.78% | -2.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -2.69% | -3.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +0.54% | -1.30% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| FROPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
IEA: Oil Market to Swing Into Surplus in Q4 2026 | Brent Falls to $95.71 - News and Statistics IndexBox
Source: IndexBox
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COP | three days earlier | -3.19% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.44% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.78% | final price |
| SHEL | three days earlier | -1.30% | final price |
| SHEL | five days earlier | +0.54% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -3.20% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +1.59% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -3.23% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -4.15% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -3.14% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 74 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 79 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“IEA: Oil Market to Swing Into Surplus in Q4 2026 | Brent Falls to $95.71 - News and Statistics” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.