IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.4% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-6.7% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+11.0% 11d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+9.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+11.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITA | +2.64% | +1.68% | base | +0.97% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -2.72% | -2.80% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -3.75% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027 Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 26 Oct 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -3.75% | final price |
| ITA | that day | +0.97% | still updating |
| ITA | three days earlier | +1.68% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | +2.64% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.80% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who collects and who pays in energy
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027,” the 26 Oct 2026 Energy story.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “energy prices” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.55. XLE traded between 60.95 and 69.72 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.32. XOM traded between 164.06 and 183.70 across 11 sessions. The latest close on file is 183.21.
How strong the case is around United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100Price not final
“IEA's Birol Energy Prices Won't Return to Pre-War Levels in 2027” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.