If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data.
Published . Updated .
Covered by 2 outlets: The Globe and Mail, The Motley Fool.
Funds like the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF provide some recession buffering.
Directly affected
- STT State Street+1.8% 13d
Named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR+1.8% 30d
Utilities Select Sector SPDR: it holds power utilities. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story.
- NEE NextEra Energy+2.6% 30d
NextEra Energy (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story.
- DUK Duke Energy+7.5% 30d
Duke Energy (electric and other services combined): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story.
- SO The Southern+7.7% 30d
The Southern (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story.
- AEP American Electric Power+6.5% 30d
American Electric Power (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XLU | -2.04% | -2.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| NEE | -2.07% | -3.22% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| DUK | -2.32% | -2.98% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SO | -1.22% | -2.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| AEP | -0.71% | -1.52% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data. The Globe and Mail
Source: The Globe and Mail
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Electric Power (AEP) | three days earlier | -1.52% | final price |
| American Electric Power (AEP) | five days earlier | -0.71% | final price |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | three days earlier | -2.98% | final price |
| Duke Energy (DUK) | five days earlier | -2.32% | final price |
| Nextera Energy (NEE) | three days earlier | -3.22% | final price |
| Nextera Energy (NEE) | five days earlier | -2.07% | final price |
| Southern (SO) | three days earlier | -2.27% | final price |
| Southern (SO) | five days earlier | -1.22% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) | three days earlier | -2.19% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) | five days earlier | -2.04% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Nextera Energy (NEE) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Nextera Energy (NEE) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Sep 2026. That is 47 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Nextera Energy (NEE) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Duke Energy (DUK) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Duke Energy (DUK), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Southern (SO), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Southern (SO), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold American Electric Power (AEP) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor bought American Electric Power (AEP), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 5 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU)
Companies mentioned with this story
- XLU Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data..” Reason on file: Utilities Select Sector SPDR: it holds power utilities. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
- NEE Nextera Energy
Nextera Energy (NEE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data..” Reason on file: NextEra Energy (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
- DUK Duke Energy
Duke Energy (DUK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data..” Reason on file: Duke Energy (electric and other services combined): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
- SO Southern
Southern (SO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 31 Oct 2026 story “If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data..” Reason on file: The Southern (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
- AEP American Electric Power
In “If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data.,” American Electric Power (AEP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: American Electric Power (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU)
“If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data.” (31 Oct 2026) reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) through this story.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU) is on the page because Utilities Select Sector SPDR: it holds power utilities. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
Nextera Energy (NEE) is here too. Its reason reads: NextEra Energy (electric services): power demand and prices drive utility earnings. Linked by “utilities” (power and utilities) in this story
Price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU)
DUK traded between 112.45 and 125.85 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 124.98. NEE traded between 75.91 and 84.39 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.75. XLU traded between 39.05 and 42.88 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 42.56.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLU)
71 out of 100
“If a Recession Is Coming, History Says Utilities Aren't Safe, Just "Less Bad." Here's the Data.” scores 71 out of 100. The score uses 5 sources, and 5 linked companies.