Intensified Russian Attacks Worsen Ukraine’s Economic Outlook, with GDP Projected to Contract in 2026-27 and Budget Financing Gap Rising to $99.5 Billion over 2026-29 – Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook by KSE Institute
Published . Updated .
KSE Institute has published the Q4 2026 edition of the Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, presenting an updated forecast for Ukraine’s economy through 2029 that covers the remainder of the full-scale war and the subsequent reconstruction and recovery period. Intensified Russian
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- LMT Lockheed Martin+11.5%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- RTX RTX-0.4%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- NOC Northrop Grumman+5.3%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+3.8%
Energy prices move when Russian supply is at risk
- GD General Dynamics-1.7%
Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense-6.7%
A fund of aerospace and defense companies
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.9%
This fund moves with oil prices
- WEAT Teucrium Wheat-4.3%
Wheat prices rise when Black Sea grain is disrupted
- MOS Mosaic-31.1%
Fertilizer makers move with Russian supply
- CF CF Industries-10.9%
Fertilizer makers move with Russian supply
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | -3.46% | -0.65% | base | +6.92% | +9.54% | after close | after close |
| RTX | -2.43% | +0.25% | base | +1.56% | -0.03% | after close | after close |
| NOC | -7.50% | -5.40% | base | +2.35% | +1.90% | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.35% | -0.51% | base | -0.84% | +1.68% | after close | after close |
| GD | -2.28% | -1.02% | base | +1.71% | +1.58% | after close | after close |
| ITA | +0.57% | +0.95% | base | -0.62% | -1.75% | after close | after close |
| USO | -1.53% | +0.69% | base | +1.72% | +5.57% | after close | after close |
| WEAT | +5.29% | +3.51% | base | -1.00% | -1.08% | after close | after close |
| MOS | +7.06% | +1.10% | base | -2.49% | -0.28% | after close | after close |
| CF | +3.05% | +1.92% | base | +1.98% | +4.48% | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Intensified Russian Attacks Worsen Ukraine’s Economic Outlook, with GDP Projected to Contract in 2026-27 and Budget Financing Gap Rising to $99.5 Billion over 2026-29 – Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook by KSE Institute kse.ua
Source: kse.ua
Defense
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CF | that day | +1.98% | final price |
| CF | the next day | +4.48% | still updating |
| CF | three days earlier | +1.92% | final price |
| CF | five days earlier | +3.05% | final price |
| GD | that day | +1.71% | final price |
| GD | the next day | +1.58% | still updating |
| GD | three days earlier | -1.02% | final price |
| GD | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
| ITA | that day | -0.62% | final price |
| ITA | the next day | -1.75% | still updating |
| ITA | three days earlier | +0.95% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | +0.57% | final price |
| LMT | that day | +6.92% | final price |
| LMT | the next day | +9.54% | still updating |
| LMT | three days earlier | -0.65% | final price |
| LMT | five days earlier | -3.46% | final price |
| MOS | that day | -2.49% | final price |
| MOS | the next day | -0.28% | still updating |
| MOS | three days earlier | +1.10% | final price |
| MOS | five days earlier | +7.06% | final price |
| NOC | that day | +2.35% | final price |
| NOC | the next day | +1.90% | still updating |
| NOC | three days earlier | -5.40% | final price |
| NOC | five days earlier | -7.50% | final price |
| RTX | that day | +1.56% | final price |
| RTX | the next day | -0.03% | still updating |
| RTX | three days earlier | +0.25% | final price |
| RTX | five days earlier | -2.43% | final price |
| USO | that day | +1.72% | final price |
| USO | the next day | +5.57% | still updating |
| USO | three days earlier | +0.69% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -1.53% | final price |
| WEAT | that day | -1.00% | final price |
| WEAT | the next day | -1.08% | still updating |
| WEAT | three days earlier | +3.51% | final price |
| WEAT | five days earlier | +5.29% | final price |
| XLE | that day | -0.84% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | +1.68% | still updating |
| XLE | three days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -2.35% | final price |
Defense
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Lockheed Martin (LMT) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Sep 2026. That is 35 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Intensified Russian Attacks Worsen Ukraine’s Economic Outlook, with GDP Projected to Contract in 2026-27 and Budget Financing Gap Rising to $99.5 Billion over 2026-29 – Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook by KSE Institute” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.