Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
- The likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by half a percentage point jumped on Tuesday morning after consumer prices rose 0.4% across the board in October, higher than economists expected and meeting a threshold set by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in an
- Exposed: TLT, IEF, TIP, WMT, JPM
- Market reaction: TLT −1.6% on the day (still updating); IEF −0.9% on the day (still updating); TIP −0.8% on the day (still updating)
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The likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by half a percentage point jumped on Tuesday morning after consumer prices rose 0.4% across the board in October, higher than economists expected and meeting a threshold set by Fed Governor Christopher Waller in an
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF-2.8% 30d
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
- IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF-1.2% 30d
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.3% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds retailers. Linked by “consumer” (retail and consumer goods) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase+0.1% 30d
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
- BAC Bank of America-11.4% 30d
Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
- DHI D.R. Horton+8.0% 30d
D.R. Horton (operative builders): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
- SCHW The Charles Schwab
The Charles Schwab (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | -1.07% | -0.05% | base | -1.61% | after close | after close | after close |
| IEF | -0.68% | +0.21% | base | -0.95% | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +0.06% | +0.20% | base | -0.77% | after close | after close | after close |
| XRTPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPM | -1.14% | -1.31% | base | +0.09% | after close | after close | after close |
| BAC | -1.83% | -1.53% | base | +0.06% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHIPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| SCHWPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation Forbes Middle East
Source: Forbes Middle East
The price since 10 Nov 2026: Ishares Tr (TLT) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America (BAC) | that day | +0.06% | still updating |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | three days earlier | -1.53% | final price |
| Bank Of America (BAC) | five days earlier | -1.83% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | that day | -0.95% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | three days earlier | +0.21% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IEF) | five days earlier | -0.68% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | that day | +0.09% | still updating |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | three days earlier | -1.31% | final price |
| Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) | five days earlier | -1.14% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.77% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.20% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | that day | -1.61% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | three days earlier | -0.05% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TLT) | five days earlier | -1.07% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Sen. John Boozman bought Ishares Tr (IEF) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 21 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse sold Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 4 Sep 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 20 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Bank Of America (BAC) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 9 Sep 2026. That is 62 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Horton D R (DHI), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 85 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who is named in “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation”
Companies mentioned with this story
- TLT Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TLT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation.” Reason on file: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
- IEF Ishares Tr
For “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Ishares Tr (IEF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- JPM Jpmorgan Chase
In “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
In “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BAC Bank Of America
For “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation,” Bank Of America (BAC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Bank of America (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation.” Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
How “Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation” reaches Ishares Tr (TLT)
“Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation” (10 Nov 2026) reaches Ishares Tr (TLT) through this story.
The link for Ishares Tr (TLT) is this: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
Also listed, Ishares Tr (IEF): iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “rate hike” (US interest rates) in this story
Dates in the story, and the Ishares Tr (TLT) price range
IEF traded between 88.64 and 90.69 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 90.08. TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. TLT traded between 76.44 and 80.56 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 79.46.
A simple score for Ishares Tr (TLT)
54 out of 100Price not final
“Interest Rate Hike Odds Rise After Hot October Inflation” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.