Iran’s evasion network survives, but the crude feeding it has run dry
Published . Updated .
Iran still has the knowhow, middlemen and shadow-fleet infrastructure it spent years developing to sell sanctioned oil to China. But it has now run out of oil outside Iran to put through that system.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- FRO Frontline+1.4%
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- INSW International Seaways-1.4%
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- DHT DHT Holdings
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- TNK Teekay Tankers
Tanker operators earn more when freight rates spike
- USO United States Oil Fund+4.9%
Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+3.8%
Energy companies move with Iran supply risk
- XOM Exxon Mobil+7.9%
Oil producers move when sanctioned barrels leave the market
- CVX Chevron+5.9%
Oil producers move when sanctioned barrels leave the market
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+1.1%
Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise
- DAL Delta Air Lines-0.8%
Airlines pay more for fuel when oil prices jump
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRO | +2.38% | -1.82% | base | +2.74% | after close | after close | after close |
| INSW | +1.36% | -3.49% | base | +3.91% | after close | after close | after close |
| DHT | -2.28% | -3.23% | base | +2.07% | after close | after close | after close |
| TNK | +1.72% | -0.66% | base | +3.63% | after close | after close | after close |
| USO | -0.46% | -1.11% | base | +3.06% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +0.97% | +0.55% | base | +2.12% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +0.46% | -0.17% | base | +1.94% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -0.70% | -0.41% | base | +1.86% | after close | after close | after close |
| OXYNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAL | -4.91% | -3.24% | base | -4.13% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Iran’s evasion network survives, but the crude feeding it has run dry Iran International
Source: Iran International
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | that day | +1.86% | still updating |
| CVX | three days earlier | -0.41% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -0.70% | final price |
| DAL | that day | -4.13% | still updating |
| DAL | three days earlier | -3.24% | final price |
| DAL | five days earlier | -4.91% | final price |
| DHT | that day | +2.07% | still updating |
| DHT | three days earlier | -3.23% | final price |
| DHT | five days earlier | -2.28% | final price |
| FRO | that day | +2.74% | still updating |
| FRO | three days earlier | -1.82% | final price |
| FRO | five days earlier | +2.38% | final price |
| INSW | that day | +3.91% | still updating |
| INSW | three days earlier | -3.49% | final price |
| INSW | five days earlier | +1.36% | final price |
| MATX | that day | -0.01% | still updating |
| MATX | three days earlier | +4.40% | final price |
| MATX | five days earlier | +3.16% | final price |
| STNG | that day | +2.56% | still updating |
| STNG | three days earlier | -2.04% | final price |
| STNG | five days earlier | -1.22% | final price |
| TNK | that day | +3.63% | still updating |
| TNK | three days earlier | -0.66% | final price |
| TNK | five days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| USO | that day | +3.06% | still updating |
| USO | three days earlier | -1.11% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -0.46% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +2.12% | still updating |
| XLE | three days earlier | +0.55% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +0.97% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +1.94% | still updating |
| XOM | three days earlier | -0.17% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +0.46% | final price |
| ZIM | that day | -0.07% | still updating |
| ZIM | three days earlier | +0.29% | final price |
| ZIM | five days earlier | +0.53% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 53 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 30 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 51 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 84 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Iran’s evasion network survives, but the crude feeding it has run dry” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.