Iraq risks 80% oil revenue loss in renewed Hormuz closure
Published . Updated .
By N SaeedA renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could slash Iraq's oil revenues by up to 80 percent, threatening government salaries, public services and the dinar, development and investment advisor Mohammed Al-Najjar has warned.Al-Najjar said a prolonged conflict involving
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iraq” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “iraq” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -2.52% | -0.26% | base | +0.32% | +1.30% | after close | after close |
| XLE | -1.29% | +1.72% | base | +0.37% | +2.25% | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.14% | +1.35% | base | +0.18% | +2.84% | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.18% | +1.19% | base | — | — | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Iraq risks 80% oil revenue loss in renewed Hormuz closure TradingView
Source: TradingView
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | three days earlier | +1.19% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.18% | final price |
| USO | that day | +0.32% | final price |
| USO | the next day | +1.30% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -0.26% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -2.52% | final price |
| XLE | that day | +0.37% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | +2.25% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +1.72% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| XOM | that day | +0.18% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | +2.84% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +1.35% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -2.14% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 15 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 90 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 15 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 36 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 57 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where “Iraq risks 80% oil revenue loss in renewed Hormuz closure” sits: Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitics Alpha has 171 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 433 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Iraq risks 80% oil revenue loss in renewed Hormuz closure” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Iraq risks 80% oil revenue loss in renewed Hormuz closure” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.