Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic?
Published . Updated .
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Get these market calls by email
The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.
Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.
U.S refineries increase production during the summer to keep pace with travel demand, but this year has seen another strain at the global level due to conflict in the Middle East
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR+5.7% 30d
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR: it holds travel and leisure firms. Linked by “travel” (travel) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy-11.1% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum-5.2% 14d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- PSX Phillips 66-2.6% 30d
Phillips 66 (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- MAR Marriott International+19.7% 9d
Marriott International (hotels and motels): travel firms move with tourism demand. Linked by “travel” (travel) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRAK | +7.09% | +0.18% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLYPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| VLO | +8.60% | -1.57% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MPC | +9.74% | -3.17% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| PSX | +7.52% | -2.45% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| MARPrices arriving within minutes | — | — | — | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic? Industrial Info Resources
Source: Industrial Info Resources
Middle East
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRAK | three days earlier | +0.18% | final price |
| CRAK | five days earlier | +7.09% | final price |
| MPC | three days earlier | -3.17% | final price |
| MPC | five days earlier | +9.74% | final price |
| PSX | three days earlier | -2.45% | final price |
| PSX | five days earlier | +7.52% | final price |
| VLO | three days earlier | -1.57% | final price |
| VLO | five days earlier | +8.60% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 29 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 49 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where “Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic?” sits: Middle East
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic?” is tagged to Middle East.
How solid “Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic?” looks
12 out of 100
“Is U.S. Refinery Expansion Realistic?” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.