Geopolitics Alpha

Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market

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Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market

The oil tanker Agioi Fanendes is due to dock in New York on 7 November, four days after the mid-term elections, carrying a cargo that covers barely 110 minut...

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund+2.7% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+5.6% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+70.4% 19d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-9.2% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “moscow” (natural gas) in this story.

  • FRO Frontline+7.1% 30d

    Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • DHT DHT Holdings

    DHT Holdings (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • INSW International Seaways+3.5% 7d

    International Seaways (water transportation): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • TNK Teekay Tankers

    Teekay Tankers (water transportation): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO-3.36%-2.27%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XLE-2.42%-2.96%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
BWETNo price data for this ticker———————
UNGNo price data for this ticker———————
FRO-8.88%-7.19%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
DHT-5.02%-1.85%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
INSW-7.97%-4.63%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
TNK-6.27%-5.65%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Market Call

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Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market Atalayar

Source: Atalayar

Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
DHTthree days earlier-1.85%final price
DHTfive days earlier-5.02%final price
FROthree days earlier-7.19%final price
FROfive days earlier-8.88%final price
INSWthree days earlier-4.63%final price
INSWfive days earlier-7.97%final price
TNKthree days earlier-5.65%final price
TNKfive days earlier-6.27%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier-2.27%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier-3.36%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-2.96%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-2.42%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)

Likely winners

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    For “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    For “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund

    In “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “moscow” (natural gas) in this story

  • BWET Amplify Commodity Trust

    Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 27 Oct 2026 story “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “diesel” (tanker shipping) in this story

United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market,” the 27 Oct 2026 this story story.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “diesel” (oil) in this story

Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range

UNG traded between 9.36 and 11.43 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 9.57. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.26. XLE traded between 60.95 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.64.

What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)

54 out of 100

“Moscow is selling Washington an energy mirage: the key points of the diesel deal that circumvents the 2022 sanctions without easing pressure on the market” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.