October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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Authors: Luke Wickenden, Daryna Dvornichenko, and Isaac Levi; Data scientist: Panda Rushwood
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-13.5% 30d
United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russian” (natural gas) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “fuel exports” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+6.5% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.8% 7d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +4.74% | +0.82% | base | +3.43% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -2.64% | -2.21% | base | +1.50% | after close | after close | after close |
| UNG | -9.22% | -1.27% | base | +2.65% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +23.15% | +6.41% | base | +5.26% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | -0.81% | -1.14% | base | +1.84% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -0.13% | -1.13% | base | +1.51% | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | -1.64% | -2.34% | base | +1.97% | after close | after close | after close |
| SHEL | +2.32% | +1.03% | base | +0.72% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
The price since 12 Nov 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | +5.26% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +6.41% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +23.15% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | that day | +1.97% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | -2.34% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | -1.64% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +1.51% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -1.13% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -0.13% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | that day | +0.72% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | three days earlier | +1.03% | final price |
| Shell (SHEL) | five days earlier | +2.32% | final price |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | that day | +2.65% | final price |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | three days earlier | -1.27% | final price |
| United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) | five days earlier | -9.22% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +3.43% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +0.82% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +4.74% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +1.50% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.21% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -2.64% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.84% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -1.14% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -0.81% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 50 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 80 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 83 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies that tend to gain
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story
- UNG United States Natural Gas Fund
For “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions,” United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “russian” (natural gas) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “fuel exports” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO)
United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions,” the 12 Nov 2026 this story story.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel exports” (oil) in this story
Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)
UNG traded between 8.95 and 11.43 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 9.34. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“October 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.