October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running
Published . Updated .
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I’m afraid the Fed’s going to have to raise rates at their next meeting.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF: Treasury bond prices move with interest-rate expectations. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- COST Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- PG The Procter & Gamble
The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- KO The Coca-Cola
The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- JPM JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase (national commercial banks): rate changes move lenders' margins and borrowers' demand. Linked by “fed” (US interest rates) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIP | +0.06% | +0.20% | base | -0.58% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLP | -2.12% | +0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TLTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMT | -0.64% | +1.67% | base | -0.18% | after close | after close | after close |
| COST | -4.41% | -0.01% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| PG | -3.76% | -0.78% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| KO | -1.30% | -0.28% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| JPMNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running Jared Bernstein | Substack
Source: Jared Bernstein | Substack
Price since this story was published: Ishares Tr (TIP)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | three days earlier | -0.01% | final price |
| Costco Wholesale (COST) | five days earlier | -4.41% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | three days earlier | -0.28% | final price |
| Coca Cola (KO) | five days earlier | -1.30% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | three days earlier | -0.78% | final price |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) | five days earlier | -3.76% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | that day | -0.58% | still updating |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.20% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.06% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | that day | -0.18% | still updating |
| Walmart (WMT) | three days earlier | +1.67% | final price |
| Walmart (WMT) | five days earlier | -0.64% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | three days earlier | +0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) | five days earlier | -2.12% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 39 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Costco Wholesale (COST), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 13 Oct 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Costco Wholesale (COST) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 7 Oct 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 23 Oct 2026. That is 18 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 12 Oct 2026. That is 29 days before publication. Filed 15 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Procter & Gamble (PG), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern bought Coca Cola (KO) (jointly held), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a dependent child), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 15 Oct 2026. That is 26 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Jpmorgan Chase (JPM) (held by a spouse), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 8 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 5 Nov 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around Ishares Tr (TIP)
Companies mentioned with this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
For “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running,” Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- XLP Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- WMT Walmart
In “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COST Costco Wholesale
For “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running,” Costco Wholesale (COST) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Costco Wholesale (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- PG Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble (PG) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running.” Reason on file: The Procter & Gamble (soap, detergents, cleang preparations, perfumes, cosmetics): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- KO Coca Cola
Coca Cola (KO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running.” Reason on file: The Coca-Cola (beverages): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Ishares Tr (TIP)
On 10 Nov 2026, “October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running” is the story that connects Ishares Tr (TIP) to this story.
Ishares Tr (TIP) is on the page because iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLP) is here too. Its reason reads: Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
Dates and price levels for Ishares Tr (TIP)
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.61 across 16 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. WMT traded between 108.59 and 130.92 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 129.23. XLP traded between 80.10 and 82.50 across 6 sessions. The latest close on file is 81.02.
What the saved facts support for Ishares Tr (TIP)
46 out of 100Price not final
“October Inflation Comes in Warm; Yearly Real Wage Growth Down for 7 Months Running” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.