Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough
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Oil prices remain highly volatile as investors weigh the prospect of progress in US-Iran negotiations against the continuing risk of supply disruption in the Middle East.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+8.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- TIP iShares TIPS Bond ETF-0.1% 30d
iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+3.3% 15d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+12.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+11.6% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +2.64% | +4.95% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| TIP | +0.16% | +0.57% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +7.18% | +11.56% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +2.57% | +5.49% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +1.76% | +4.58% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +4.03% | +5.88% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COP | +3.21% | +6.66% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough www.proactiveinvestors.com.au
Source: www.proactiveinvestors.com.au
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 4 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +11.56% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +7.18% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +6.66% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +3.21% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +4.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +1.76% | final price |
| OXY | three days earlier | +5.88% | final price |
| OXY | five days earlier | +4.03% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | three days earlier | +0.57% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (TIP) | five days earlier | +0.16% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +2.64% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +5.49% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +2.57% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 2 Oct 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Middle East has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough” is tagged to Middle East.
Who gains and who pays if Middle East stays in the story
Companies tied to this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- TIP Ishares Tr
Ishares Tr (TIP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough.” Reason on file: iShares TIPS Bond ETF: it is a common hedge when prices rise. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- WMT Walmart
For “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough,” Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): big consumer-goods sellers feel price rises in costs and shopper demand. Linked by “inflation” (inflation and prices) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
For “Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
“Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough” (4 Nov 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Middle East.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
TIP traded between 103.77 and 105.67 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 105.27. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 156.89. XLE traded between 62.95 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 67.26.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100
“Oil around US$104 keeps inflation risks alive despite hopes for Iran breakthrough” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.