Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war
Published . Updated .
Covered by 2 outlets: The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.
Key takeaways
- Global oil prices tumbled Monday, continuing a weeklong slide built on hopes that diplomacy may help bring the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to an end despite continued hostilities in some parts of the Middle East.
- Exposed: USO, XLE, ITA, XOM, CVX
- Market reaction: price tracking starts with the next trading session.
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Global oil prices tumbled Monday, continuing a weeklong slide built on hopes that diplomacy may help bring the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to an end despite continued hostilities in some parts of the Middle East.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “middle east” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- EIS iShares MSCI Israel ETF-3.8% 10d
iShares MSCI Israel ETF holds stocks listed in Israel, which this story is about (“israeli”).
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+3.1% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +10.89% | +3.88% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +7.65% | -0.44% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +0.66% | -4.98% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EISNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | +7.73% | +0.33% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.86% | +1.02% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXYNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Source: The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +1.02% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.86% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -4.98% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +0.66% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +3.88% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +10.89% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.44% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +7.65% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +0.33% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +7.73% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 27 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 48 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 69 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 78 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 81 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
The Middle East count beside this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 0 stories about Middle East from the past 7 days and 0 stories from the past 30. “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war” is tagged to Middle East.
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Companies that tend to gain
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Middle East.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
What the saved facts support for United States Oil Fund (USO)
54 out of 100
“Oil costs continue downward trend built on hope diplomacy ends war” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 7 linked companies.