Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution
Published . Updated .
Oil prices fell ahead of the U.S. midterm elections despite attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian threats of retaliation. Bloomberg rep
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+13.9% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+12.1% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.0% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+13.4% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+15.7% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+1.5% 30d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+8.3% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXYNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution bloomingbit
Source: bloomingbit
Earlier energy stories for United States Oil Fund (USO): 18 cases
Those 18 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of -1.94% the next day. Largest gain +6.10%, largest drop -3.69%, from 18 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | -1.94% | +6.10% | -3.69% | 18 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | -0.40% | +4.59% | -1.37% | 18 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | -0.71% | +2.88% | -1.51% | 18 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | -0.49% | +1.30% | -0.87% | 18 |
- Iran reports tanker explosions in Hormuz as Trump hints at renewed strikes
- UPDATES: US War on Iran, Day 239 - Attacks on Shipping in Strait Of Hormuz Highest Since March
- Adnoc Keeps Loading LNG on Tankers Despite Hormuz Disruption
- Brace for a Flood of Oil as Soon as Hormuz Reopens - Energy News, Top Headlines, Commentaries, Features & Events
- Oil Prices End Mixed as Traders Weigh Demand Outlook, Hormuz Shipping Risks
- Gold, silver extend weekly losses as Hormuz tensions push crude above $116 - Kitco PM Report
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 2 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 68 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Where this story sits: Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitics Alpha has 171 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 459 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Who collects and who pays in energy
Companies that tend to gain
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 2 Nov 2026 story “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution.” Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
In “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
For “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 2 Nov 2026 story “Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Strait of Hormuz.
What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.83. XLE traded between 62.06 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 70.00.
The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Oil Falls Ahead of U.S. Midterms Despite Hormuz Tensions on Hopes for Diplomatic Solution” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.