Geopolitics Alpha

Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War

Published . Updated .

ENERGYOil Falls Amid Diplomatic Effortsto End Iran WarGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.4% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-6.7% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+64.8% 18d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+11.0% 11d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+9.9% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+11.7% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d

    Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO-5.13%-5.78%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
XLE-2.19%-1.69%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
ITANo price data for this ticker———————
BWETNo price data for this ticker———————
XOM-2.72%-2.80%baseafter closeafter closeafter closeafter close
CVXNo price data for this ticker———————
COPNo price data for this ticker———————
SHELNo price data for this ticker———————

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

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Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War WSJ

Source: The Wall Street Journal

United States Oil Fund (USO) since “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier-5.78%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier-5.13%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-1.69%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-2.19%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier-2.80%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-2.72%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story

Companies that tend to gain

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” United States Oil Fund (USO) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    In “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy companies move with Iran supply risk. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

  • LMT Lockheed Martin

    In “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” Lockheed Martin (LMT) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Defense contractors get more work when conflict spending rises. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    For “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War.” Reason on file: Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise. Linked by “oil + falls” in this story

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War.” Reason on file: Oil producers earn more when crude prices rise. Linked by “oil + falls” in this story

How “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War” reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War,” the 26 Oct 2026 Energy story.

What ties United States Oil Fund (USO) to the headline is this: Oil prices move when Iranian supply is at risk. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy companies move with Iran supply risk. Linked by “iran + oil” in this story

Dates and price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

LMT traded between 497.32 and 609.35 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 604.45. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.55. XLE traded between 60.95 and 69.72 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.32.

A simple score for United States Oil Fund (USO)

46 out of 100

“Oil Falls Amid Diplomatic Efforts to End Iran War” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies.