Oil falls on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps strikes on the table
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Oil prices fell on Monday morning as talks in Qatar revived hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but US President Donald Trump kept the threat of fresh strikes alive and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly urged him to hit Iran straight after Tuesday's midterm elections.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “hormuz” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- EIS iShares MSCI Israel ETF
iShares MSCI Israel ETF holds stocks listed in Israel, which this story is about (“israel”).
- QAT iShares MSCI Qatar ETF
iShares MSCI Qatar ETF holds stocks listed in Qatar, which this story is about (“qatar”).
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -1.54% | -1.29% | base | -7.16% | -6.32% | -13.84% | -12.25% |
| XLE | -0.51% | -2.20% | base | -3.91% | -4.71% | -9.28% | -11.35% |
| BWET | -4.39% | -3.93% | base | -2.78% | -10.37% | -24.41% | -28.03% |
| ITA | -1.26% | -0.97% | base | +2.36% | +3.18% | +1.46% | -2.60% |
| EIS | +6.54% | +2.97% | base | +0.28% | +0.28% | -2.04% | -6.90% |
| QAT | -5.18% | +0.43% | base | +4.69% | +4.69% | +7.68% | +8.23% |
| XOM | -1.45% | -2.77% | base | -4.00% | -5.21% | -9.49% | -11.72% |
| CVX | -1.54% | -2.69% | base | -3.31% | -4.38% | -7.92% | -8.59% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil falls on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps strikes on the table Euronews.com
Source: euronews.com
Strait of Hormuz
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | that day | -2.78% | final price |
| BWET | the next day | -10.37% | final price |
| BWET | two days later | -24.41% | final price |
| BWET | three days later | -28.03% | final price |
| BWET | three days earlier | -3.93% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | -4.39% | final price |
| CVX | that day | -3.31% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | -4.38% | final price |
| CVX | two days later | -7.92% | final price |
| CVX | three days later | -8.59% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | -2.69% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| EIS | that day | +0.28% | final price |
| EIS | the next day | +0.28% | final price |
| EIS | two days later | -2.04% | final price |
| EIS | three days later | -6.90% | final price |
| EIS | three days earlier | +2.97% | final price |
| EIS | five days earlier | +6.54% | final price |
| ITA | that day | +2.36% | final price |
| ITA | the next day | +3.18% | final price |
| ITA | two days later | +1.46% | final price |
| ITA | three days later | -2.60% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -1.26% | final price |
| QAT | that day | +4.69% | final price |
| QAT | the next day | +4.69% | final price |
| QAT | two days later | +7.68% | final price |
| QAT | three days later | +8.23% | final price |
| QAT | three days earlier | +0.43% | final price |
| QAT | five days earlier | -5.18% | final price |
| USO | that day | -7.16% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -6.32% | final price |
| USO | two days later | -13.84% | final price |
| USO | three days later | -12.25% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | -1.29% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | -1.54% | final price |
| XLE | that day | -3.91% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | -4.71% | final price |
| XLE | two days later | -9.28% | final price |
| XLE | three days later | -11.35% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | -2.20% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | -0.51% | final price |
| XOM | that day | -4.00% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | -5.21% | final price |
| XOM | two days later | -9.49% | final price |
| XOM | three days later | -11.72% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | -1.45% | final price |
Congressional trades in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 19 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Strait of Hormuz on the map for this story
Geopolitics Alpha has 203 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 713 stories from the past 30. That is about its usual pace over the past month. “Oil falls on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps strikes on the table” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Oil falls on Hormuz deal hopes but Trump keeps strikes on the table” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.