Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks
Published . Updated .
Oil prices rose on Friday, putting them on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain as traders anticipated a possible escalation in the US-Iran conflict following the US midterm elections. An attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has further underscored the risks to
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+9.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+25.1% 18d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “tanker” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+0.3% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “hormuz” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.9% 15d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+10.5% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+7.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +0.80% | -2.73% | base | +1.27% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +0.88% | -0.71% | base | +1.35% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | +0.03% | -1.79% | base | +1.70% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.78% | -1.37% | base | +1.48% | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks Caspian Post
Source: Caspian Post
20 earlier Strait of Hormuz stories for United States Oil Fund (USO)
Those 20 earlier stories put United States Oil Fund (USO) at an average move of +4.56% the next day. Largest gain +6.10%, largest drop -0.66%, from 20 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | +4.56% | +6.10% | -0.66% | 20 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | +2.26% | +2.58% | +0.46% | 20 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | +2.01% | +2.88% | -0.41% | 20 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | +0.52% | +1.30% | -0.96% | 20 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | +2.83% | +3.24% | -0.63% | 20 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | +1.45% | +2.18% | -0.46% | 20 |
- Malaysia's trade surges 27% amid tariffs, Hormuz closure
- Iran says seven oil tankers damaged in Strait of Hormuz
- Iran says 7 tankers on fire or damaged overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast news
- Iraq is looking to charter tankers to ship fuel oil outside of the Strait of Hormuz
- WTI crude squeezed between Hormuz risk and diesel ban speculation
- IRGC says four vessels carrying oil hit mines near Hormuz, warns US of wider responses
The price since 30 Oct 2026: United States Oil Fund (USO) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | +1.48% | superseded |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -1.37% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +0.78% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | +1.27% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.73% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +0.80% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | +1.35% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.71% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +0.88% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +1.70% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -1.79% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +0.03% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 16 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 16 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Strait of Hormuz has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 135 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 385 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks.” Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
In “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
In “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks,” Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
How a Strait of Hormuz shock reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 30 Oct 2026 story “Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Strait of Hormuz.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
What this energy story puts on the calendar
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 168.21. XLE traded between 61.91 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.72.
How solid the energy case looks
46 out of 100Price not final
“Oil Poised for Fourth Monthly Gain Amid Hormuz Supply Risks” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.