Oil Prices Fall as Market Awaits Possible US-Iran Ceasefire Deal
Published . Updated .
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Get these market calls by email
The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.
Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.
This report is about oil and defense. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “ceasefire” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | -8.03% | -6.32% | -5.71% | -9.82% |
| XLE | +2.64% | +4.95% | base | -4.79% | -6.96% | -7.59% | -7.07% |
| ITA | -4.02% | -3.08% | base | -1.67% | -5.60% | -4.31% | -0.65% |
| BWET | +7.18% | +11.56% | base | -15.67% | -19.70% | -19.70% | -30.61% |
| XOM | +2.57% | +5.49% | base | -4.52% | -6.87% | -6.39% | -7.18% |
| CVX | +1.76% | +4.58% | base | -3.71% | -4.40% | -5.45% | -6.75% |
| OXY | +4.03% | +5.88% | base | -5.14% | -6.74% | -6.31% | -7.69% |
| COP | +3.21% | +6.66% | base | -5.19% | -6.18% | -5.61% | -6.83% |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil Prices Fall as Market Awaits Possible US-Iran Ceasefire Deal EnergyNow
Source: EnergyNow
Energy
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | that day | -15.67% | final price |
| BWET | the next day | -19.70% | final price |
| BWET | two days later | -19.70% | final price |
| BWET | three days later | -30.61% | final price |
| BWET | three days earlier | +11.56% | final price |
| BWET | five days earlier | +7.18% | final price |
| COP | that day | -5.19% | final price |
| COP | the next day | -6.18% | final price |
| COP | two days later | -5.61% | final price |
| COP | three days later | -6.83% | final price |
| COP | three days earlier | +6.66% | final price |
| COP | five days earlier | +3.21% | final price |
| CVX | that day | -3.71% | final price |
| CVX | the next day | -4.40% | final price |
| CVX | two days later | -5.45% | final price |
| CVX | three days later | -6.75% | final price |
| CVX | three days earlier | +4.58% | final price |
| CVX | five days earlier | +1.76% | final price |
| ITA | that day | -1.67% | final price |
| ITA | the next day | -5.60% | final price |
| ITA | two days later | -4.31% | final price |
| ITA | three days later | -0.65% | final price |
| ITA | three days earlier | -3.08% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -4.02% | final price |
| OXY | that day | -5.14% | final price |
| OXY | the next day | -6.74% | final price |
| OXY | two days later | -6.31% | final price |
| OXY | three days later | -7.69% | final price |
| OXY | three days earlier | +5.88% | final price |
| OXY | five days earlier | +4.03% | final price |
| USO | that day | -8.03% | final price |
| USO | the next day | -6.32% | final price |
| USO | two days later | -5.71% | final price |
| USO | three days later | -9.82% | final price |
| USO | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| USO | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| XLE | that day | -4.79% | final price |
| XLE | the next day | -6.96% | final price |
| XLE | two days later | -7.59% | final price |
| XLE | three days later | -7.07% | final price |
| XLE | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| XLE | five days earlier | +2.64% | final price |
| XOM | that day | -4.52% | final price |
| XOM | the next day | -6.87% | final price |
| XOM | two days later | -6.39% | final price |
| XOM | three days later | -7.18% | final price |
| XOM | three days earlier | +5.49% | final price |
| XOM | five days earlier | +2.57% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How solid the energy case looks
12 out of 100
“Oil Prices Fall as Market Awaits Possible US-Iran Ceasefire Deal” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources.