Geopolitics Alpha

Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Oil prices fell as hopes for easing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, rising OPEC+ production, and growing U.S.
  • Exposed: USO, XLE, ITA, DBA, XOM
  • Market reaction: USO +3.4% on the day; XLE +1.5% on the day; OXY +2.2% on the day

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Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds

Oil prices fell as hopes for easing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, rising OPEC+ production, and growing U.S. crude inventories outweighed concerns about Middle Eastern supply disruptions.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.5% 30d

    Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund-6.1% 30d

    Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “ukraine” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • UNG United States Natural Gas Fund-13.5% 30d

    United States Natural Gas Fund: it follows natural-gas prices. Linked by “ukraine” (natural gas) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+2.9% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d

    Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+6.5% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
USO+4.74%+0.82%base+3.43%after closeafter closeafter close
XLE-2.64%-2.21%base+1.50%after closeafter closeafter close
DBA-0.74%-1.01%base-0.21%after closeafter closeafter close
UNG-9.22%-1.27%base+2.65%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM-0.81%-1.14%base+1.84%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX-0.13%-1.13%base+1.51%after closeafter closeafter close
OXY-1.40%-2.40%base+2.25%after closeafter closeafter close
COP-1.64%-2.34%base+1.97%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Source: Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

United States Oil Fund (USO) since this story, compared with the market

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Conocophillips (COP)that day+1.97%final price
Conocophillips (COP)three days earlier-2.34%final price
Conocophillips (COP)five days earlier-1.64%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+1.51%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier-1.13%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier-0.13%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)that day-0.21%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days earlier-1.01%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)five days earlier-0.74%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)that day+2.25%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)three days earlier-2.40%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)five days earlier-1.40%final price
UNGthat day+2.65%final price
UNGthree days earlier-1.27%final price
UNGfive days earlier-9.22%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day+3.43%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+0.82%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+4.74%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)that day+1.50%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)three days earlier-2.21%final price
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE)five days earlier-2.64%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day+1.84%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier-1.14%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier-0.81%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who collects and who pays in energy

Likely winners

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    In “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    For “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    In “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr

    For “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds.” Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “ukraine” (defense) in this story

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 12 Nov 2026 story “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds.” Reason on file: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “ukraine” (grains and farm goods) in this story

How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)

United States Oil Fund (USO) is the company in “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds,” the 12 Nov 2026 Energy story.

For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

Price levels for United States Oil Fund (USO)

ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 143.02 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 148.41. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

How solid “Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds” looks

46 out of 100

“Oil Prices Sink as Iran and Ukraine Peace Optimism Builds” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.