Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and tanker shipping. Names like XOM and CVX typically gain because exxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+7.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.2% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF+25.1% 18d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+10.3% 14d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+8.4% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+7.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- SHEL Shell+0.1% 13d
Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- FRO Frontline+2.8% 30d
Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +0.80% | -2.73% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +0.88% | -0.71% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWETNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | +0.03% | -1.79% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +0.78% | -1.37% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SHELNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| FRO | -6.45% | -4.89% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist Latest news from Azerbaijan
Source: Latest news from Azerbaijan
Earlier energy stories for United States Oil Fund (USO): 17 cases
Across 17 earlier stories, United States Oil Fund (USO) the next day averaged +4.34%. The largest gain was +6.10% and the largest drop was -0.66%, from 17 prices.
| Company | When | Average | Largest gain | Largest drop | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | the next day | +4.34% | +6.10% | -0.66% | 17 |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days later | +2.67% | +5.08% | +0.46% | 17 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | the next day | +0.89% | +1.70% | -0.95% | 17 |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days later | +0.66% | +2.31% | -0.96% | 17 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | the next day | +1.83% | +2.88% | -0.63% | 16 |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days later | +1.72% | +3.42% | -0.46% | 16 |
- Middle East Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels Defy Hormuz Attacks
- AMERICAN ENERGY SNAPSHOT: Beyond Hormuz – The Pressures Keeping Fuel Markets Tight
- Iraq’s Energy Challenges Amid the Hormuz Crisis
- Brent crude is slipping to $108.42 after topping $110 as Hormuz risks persist
- Oil prices increase as 7 tankers reported damaged in Hormuz
- Iran says 7 tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, and other Mideast news
United States Oil Fund (USO) since “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -1.37% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +0.78% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | three days earlier | -4.89% | final price |
| Frontline (FRO) | five days earlier | -6.45% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -2.73% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +0.80% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | -0.71% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +0.88% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -1.79% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +0.03% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 37 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 58 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 67 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
How busy Strait of Hormuz has been lately
Geopolitics Alpha has 122 stories about Strait of Hormuz from the past 7 days and 366 stories from the past 30. That is faster than its usual pace over the past month. “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist” is tagged to Strait of Hormuz.
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
For “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
In “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” Frontline (FRO) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
In “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 30 Oct 2026 story “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
For “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
How “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist” reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
“Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist” (30 Oct 2026) reaches United States Oil Fund (USO) through Strait of Hormuz.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Also listed, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE): Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
The price range for United States Oil Fund (USO), and the dates in the story
BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 166.69. XLE traded between 61.05 and 69.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 68.46.
How solid “Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist” looks
46 out of 100
“Oil prices surge as Strait of Hormuz supply risks persist” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.