Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
Market Call
Think this story will push the stock up or down over the next three trading days? Make a free call and see what other readers think. Points are play money with no cash value.
Get these market calls by email
The week's biggest market-moving stories, Congress trades and Trump posts, with the tickers they touch. Free, one email a week.
Free. We only use your email to send the digest, never sell or share it, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe link. See our privacy policy.
Saul Kavonic, Head of Energy Research at MST Marquee, discusses the energy market's reaction to the U.S. midterms elections. He says the sharp sell-off in oil prices may be premature, explaining that the risk of President Trump escalating the Iran war now that the midterms are
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+2.0% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+9.6% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+11.1% 19d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +15.71% | +7.84% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +8.14% | +5.85% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +32.30% | +28.62% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | +8.08% | +6.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +6.66% | +5.01% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| OXYNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COP | +9.55% | +7.27% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst CNBC
Source: CNBC
United States Oil Fund (USO) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +28.62% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +32.30% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | three days earlier | +7.27% | final price |
| Conocophillips (COP) | five days earlier | +9.55% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +5.01% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +6.66% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +7.84% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +15.71% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +5.85% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +8.14% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +6.08% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +8.08% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 22 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 43 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 64 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 71 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 73 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 76 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Companies in energy around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 5 Nov 2026 story “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- SHEL Shell
For “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Shell (SHEL) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Shell (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- FRO Frontline
In “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Frontline (FRO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Frontline (deep sea foreign transportation of freight): tanker owners earn more when more crude has to move by sea. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
In “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst,” Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “oil” (tanker shipping) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
On 5 Nov 2026, “Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Energy.
United States Oil Fund (USO) is on the page because United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), is listed for a different reason: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
CVX traded between 204.86 and 236.45 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 225.24. USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
The energy score for United States Oil Fund (USO)
46 out of 100
“Oil sell-off may be premature as Trump-Iran escalation risk remains high: Analyst” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.