Geopolitics Alpha

Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels decreased slightly this year due to the Iran war.
  • Exposed: ITA, BWET, XOM, CVX, OXY
  • Market reaction: BWET −10.4% on the day; ITA +1.1% on the day; OXY +2.0% on the day

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Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say

Emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels decreased slightly this year due to the Iran war. I

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d

    iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.

  • XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.6% 30d

    SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.

  • USO United States Oil Fund-1.1% 30d

    United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d

    Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings-2.7% 17d

    ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • CVX Chevron+3.1% 30d

    Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d

    Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

  • COP ConocoPhillips+4.0% 30d

    ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
ITA+0.66%-4.98%base+1.05%after closeafter closeafter close
XAR-1.08%-9.46%base+0.02%after closeafter closeafter close
USO+10.89%+3.88%base-0.84%after closeafter closeafter close
BWET+44.12%+15.72%base-10.42%after closeafter closeafter close
XOM+7.73%+0.33%base-0.21%after closeafter closeafter close
CVX+6.86%+1.02%base+0.16%after closeafter closeafter close
OXY+8.33%+1.02%base+1.97%after closeafter closeafter close
COP+7.34%+0.71%base+0.80%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say PBS

Source: PBS

The price since 10 Nov 2026: IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)that day-10.42%final price
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)three days earlier+15.72%final price
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET)five days earlier+44.12%final price
Conocophillips (COP)that day+0.80%final price
Conocophillips (COP)three days earlier+0.71%final price
Conocophillips (COP)five days earlier+7.34%final price
Chevron (CVX)that day+0.16%final price
Chevron (CVX)three days earlier+1.02%final price
Chevron (CVX)five days earlier+6.86%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)that day+1.05%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)three days earlier-4.98%final price
IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)five days earlier+0.66%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)that day+1.97%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)three days earlier+1.02%final price
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)five days earlier+8.33%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)that day-0.84%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)three days earlier+3.88%final price
United States Oil Fund (USO)five days earlier+10.89%final price
XARthat day+0.02%final price
XARthree days earlier-9.46%final price
XARfive days earlier-1.08%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)that day-0.21%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)three days earlier+0.33%final price
ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM)five days earlier+7.73%final price

Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story

Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).

Who gains and who loses around IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

Companies that tend to gain

  • XOM ExxonMobil Holdings

    In “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • CVX Chevron

    For “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • OXY Occidental Petroleum

    For “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

No up or down call on file

  • ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

    In “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

  • BWET Amplify Commodity Trust

    Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story

  • COP Conocophillips

    For “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

  • USO United States Oil Fund

    United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 10 Nov 2026 story “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) and the energy link

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is the company in “Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say,” the 10 Nov 2026 Energy story.

IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is on the page because iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story

A second company, Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET), is listed for a different reason: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story

The price range for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA), and the dates in the story

BWET traded between 788.51 and 1047.07 across 17 sessions. The latest close on file is 907.20. ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.

What the saved facts support for IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

46 out of 100

“Oil shock from Iran war led to drop in carbon pollution, scientists say” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.