Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections
Published . Updated .
Covered by 2 outlets: Central Oregon Daily, The Lufkin Daily News.
Key takeaways
- By Arathy Somasekhar HOUSTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 9% on Wednesday in volatile trading as investors awaited Washington's next move in the US-Israeli war with Iran after
- Exposed: USO, XLE, ITA, BWET, XOM
- Market reaction: USO −8.5% on the day (still updating); XLE −5.6% on the day (still updating); BWET −15.7% on the day (still updating)
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By Arathy Somasekhar HOUSTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 9% on Wednesday in volatile trading as investors awaited Washington's next move in the US-Israeli war with Iran after
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+6.3% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+6.9% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- BWET Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF-3.3% 17d
Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story.
- EIS iShares MSCI Israel ETF-4.5% 11d
iShares MSCI Israel ETF holds stocks listed in Israel, which this story is about (“israeli”).
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+2.0% 16d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+9.6% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
- OXY Occidental Petroleum+10.3% 18d
Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | +5.38% | +6.75% | base | -8.53% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLE | +2.64% | +4.95% | base | -5.59% | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | -4.02% | -3.08% | base | -1.30% | after close | after close | after close |
| BWET | +7.18% | +11.56% | base | -15.67% | after close | after close | after close |
| EIS | +2.68% | -0.28% | base | -2.31% | after close | after close | after close |
| XOM | +2.57% | +5.49% | base | -4.87% | after close | after close | after close |
| CVX | +1.76% | +4.58% | base | -4.10% | after close | after close | after close |
| OXY | +4.03% | +5.88% | base | -5.78% | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections Central Oregon Daily
Source: Central Oregon Daily
United States Oil Fund (USO) compared with energy stocks (XLE) since 4 Nov 2026
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | that day | -15.67% | still updating |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | three days earlier | +11.56% | final price |
| Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) | five days earlier | +7.18% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -4.10% | still updating |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | +4.58% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | +1.76% | final price |
| EIS | that day | -2.31% | still updating |
| EIS | three days earlier | -0.28% | final price |
| EIS | five days earlier | +2.68% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | that day | -1.30% | still updating |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | -3.08% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | -4.02% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | that day | -5.78% | still updating |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | three days earlier | +5.88% | final price |
| Occidental Petroleum (OXY) | five days earlier | +4.03% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -8.53% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | +6.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | +5.38% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | that day | -5.59% | still updating |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | three days earlier | +4.95% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) | five days earlier | +2.64% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | -4.87% | still updating |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | +5.49% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | +2.57% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 65 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Pete Sessions sold Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 14 Oct 2026. That is 21 days before publication. Filed 27 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 42 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 70 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 72 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 75 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Who gains and who loses around United States Oil Fund (USO)
Likely winners
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
In “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- CVX Chevron
Chevron (CVX) tends to benefit, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections.” Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- OXY Occidental Petroleum
For “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections,” Occidental Petroleum (OXY) tends to benefit, medium confidence. Reason on file: Occidental Petroleum (crude petroleum and natural gas): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
No up or down call on file
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections.” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections.” Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- BWET Amplify Commodity Trust
Amplify Commodity Trust (BWET) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections.” Reason on file: Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF: it tracks tanker freight rates. Linked by “iran” (tanker shipping) in this story
United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy link
On 4 Nov 2026, “Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections” is the story that connects United States Oil Fund (USO) to Energy.
The link for United States Oil Fund (USO) is this: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
A second company, Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE), is listed for a different reason: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “oil” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
ITA traded between 197.59 and 218.73 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 216.38. USO traded between 142.51 and 171.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 158.17. XLE traded between 63.05 and 70.15 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 66.70.
How solid the energy case looks
54 out of 100Price not final
“Oil tumbles 9% as investors eye possible end to Iran war after US midterm elections” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.