Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.
Published . Updated .
This report is about tariffs and trade and defense.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-3.1% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-6.7% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-12.3% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- DE Deere-5.1% 30d
Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- WMT Walmart+9.9% 30d
Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- NKE Nike+0.7% 30d
Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLINo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XRTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITANo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | -1.53% | after close | after close | after close |
| CATNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| WMTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NKENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting. The Washington Post
Source: The Washington Post
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) since this story, compared with the market
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -1.53% | still updating |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Caterpillar (CAT), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Jonathan Jackson sold Walmart (WMT) (jointly held), worth $50,001 - $100,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 28 days before publication. Filed 19 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna bought Walmart (WMT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 25 Sep 2026. That is 31 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Rohit Khanna sold Walmart (WMT) (held by a dependent child), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 11 Sep 2026. That is 45 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 28 Aug 2026. That is 59 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Gilbert Cisneros sold Nike (NKE), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 27 Aug 2026. That is 60 days before publication. Filed 10 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Nike (NKE), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Companies in defense around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies carried with this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
For “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.,” Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
In “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting..” Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “iran” (oil) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- DE Deere
Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting..” Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- WMT Walmart
Walmart (WMT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting..” Reason on file: Walmart (variety stores): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- NKE Nike
For “Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.,” Nike (NKE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Nike (rubber and plastics footwear): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
How defense news reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
“Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.” (26 Oct 2026) reaches Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) through Defense.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is on the page because Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
A second company, Spdr Series Trust (XRT), is listed for a different reason: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Dates and price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
ITA traded between 197.59 and 211.80 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 202.25. XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 164.61. XRT traded between 83.12 and 86.10 across 2 sessions. The latest close on file is 83.23.
How strong the case is around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100Price not final
“Opinion | Brace yourself, GOP. Trump’s Iran war and tariffs are going to sting.” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies. The price is not final yet.