Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?
Published . Updated .
Key takeaways
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This report is about tariffs and trade and exchanges and trading.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR-0.3% 30d
Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- XRT SPDR S&P Retail ETF
SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- IAI iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF
iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF+1.1% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets+32.5% 30d
Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- HOOD Robinhood Markets-30.5% 30d
Robinhood Markets (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
- CAT Caterpillar-31.9% 30d
Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story.
- CME CME Group+3.6% 14d
CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLI | +4.34% | +4.15% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| XRT | +1.17% | +4.73% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| IAI | +1.09% | +4.45% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| ITA | +3.67% | +2.77% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CBOE | -0.97% | -2.19% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| HOOD | +3.59% | +8.08% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CAT | +9.84% | +5.82% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
| CME | +0.11% | +0.73% | base | after close | after close | after close | after close |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP? Knewz
Source: Knewz
The price since 7 Nov 2026: Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) versus the S&P 500
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar (CAT) | three days earlier | +5.82% | final price |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | five days earlier | +9.84% | final price |
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | three days earlier | -2.19% | final price |
| Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) | five days earlier | -0.97% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | three days earlier | +0.73% | final price |
| Cme Group (CME) | five days earlier | +0.11% | final price |
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | three days earlier | +8.08% | final price |
| Robinhood Markets (HOOD) | five days earlier | +3.59% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | three days earlier | +4.45% | final price |
| Ishares Tr (IAI) | five days earlier | +1.09% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | three days earlier | +2.77% | final price |
| IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) | five days earlier | +3.67% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | three days earlier | +4.15% | final price |
| Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) | five days earlier | +4.34% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | three days earlier | +4.73% | final price |
| Spdr Series Trust (XRT) | five days earlier | +1.17% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Lisa McClain bought Caterpillar (CAT) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 28 Sep 2026. That is 40 days before publication. Filed 12 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Cme Group (CME), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 17 Aug 2026. That is 82 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, sold Cme Group (CME), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 10 Aug 2026. That is 89 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
Companies in defense around Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
Companies tied to this story
- XLI Select Sector Spdr Tr
In “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- XRT Spdr Series Trust
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 7 Nov 2026 story “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?.” Reason on file: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- IAI Ishares Tr
In “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Ishares Tr (IAI) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF: it holds exchanges and brokers. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- ITA IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
For “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” IShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story
- CBOE Cboe Global Markets
In “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Cboe Global Markets (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- HOOD Robinhood Markets
For “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Robinhood Markets (security brokers, dealers and flotation companies): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
- CAT Caterpillar
For “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Caterpillar (CAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Caterpillar (construction machinery and equip): importers and exporters pay or lose sales when tariffs change. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
- CME Cme Group
For “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” Cme Group (CME) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: CME Group (security and commodity brokers, dealers, exchanges and services): exchanges and brokers earn more when trading activity grows. Linked by “prediction market” (exchanges and trading) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) and the defense link
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is the company in “Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?,” the 7 Nov 2026 Defense story.
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI) is on the page because Industrial Select Sector SPDR: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Spdr Series Trust (XRT) is here too. Its reason reads: SPDR S&P Retail ETF: it holds companies hit by import costs and trade rules. Linked by “tariff” (tariffs and trade) in this story
Price levels for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
XLI traded between 163.00 and 172.33 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.73.
A simple score for Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLI)
46 out of 100
“Prediction markets weigh in: Was it the Iran war, tariffs or immigration that sank the GOP?” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 8 linked companies.