Reader Q&A: After Lula’s sensational victory in Brazil’s presidential election, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent answers your questions
Published . Updated .
Having lost the first round of Brazil’s presidential election to far right rival Flávio Bolsonaro, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spectacularly triumphed in the second. What comes next for Brazil? The Guardian’s Tom Phillips is answering your questions now. Ask a question: log in or sign up here to comment, or email conversations@theguardian.com BMcG0305 asks: A couple of questions. Is there any legal way Bolsonaro could use to contest the result? Also is there any potential way to stop certification of the result? Tom: In a nutshell, no. His party acknowledged the election results yesterday and although Flávio Bolsonaro has said he will take legal action, legal experts agree he hasn’t a hope in hell of success. Donald Trump’s rather half-hearted claim of a “rigged” election, suggests the US president isn’t going to go to war with Brazil over this either – even if Steve Bannon is calling for all diplomatic and trade relations to be cut. It just isn’t going to happen. Apart from Milei, rightwing leaders in Latin America have all recognised Lula’s win. In Brazil, meanwhile, prominent rightwing leaders have urged supporters not to take to the streets to protest against the election win, as they did before the 2022/23 coup attempt. Continue reading...
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF-3.2% 30d
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF-7.5% 30d
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF: it holds defense and aerospace contractors. Linked by “war” (defense) in this story.
- EWZ iShares MSCI Brazil ETF-9.7% 30d
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF holds stocks listed in Brazil, which this story is about (“brazil”).
- ARGT Global X MSCI Argentina ETF-13.8% 30d
Global X MSCI Argentina ETF holds stocks listed in Argentina, which this story is about (“milei”).
- PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (crude petroleum and natural gas) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazil”) reaches its shares.
- ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A+23.6% 8d
Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A (state commercial banks) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazil”) reaches its shares.
- NU Nu Holdings
Nu Holdings (finance services) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazil”) reaches its shares.
- VALE Vale S.A-3.1% 12d
Vale S.A (metal mining) is one of the largest Brazil-based companies traded in the US, so news about Brazil (“brazil”) reaches its shares.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | -0.49% | -1.27% | base | -0.82% | after close | after close | after close |
| XARNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EWZNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ARGTNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| PBRNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ITUBNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NUNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| VALENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
Market Call
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Having lost the first round of Brazil’s presidential election to far right rival Flávio Bolsonaro, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spectacularly triumphed in the second. What comes next for Brazil? The Guardian’s Tom Phillips is answer…
Source: The Guardian
Defense
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | that day | -0.82% | still updating |
| ITA | three days earlier | -1.27% | final price |
| ITA | five days earlier | -0.49% | final price |
How solid the defense case looks
12 out of 100Price not final
“Reader Q&A: After Lula’s sensational victory in Brazil’s presidential election, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent answers your questions” scores 12 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources. The price is not final yet.