Geopolitics Alpha

Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine

Published . Updated .

Key takeaways

  • Exposed: DBA, WEAT, CF, MOS, ADM
  • Market reaction: DBA −0.5% on the day (still updating); WEAT +0.3% on the day (still updating); MOS +4.9% on the day (still updating)

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GEOPOLITICS ALPHARecord grain ending stocksforecast in UkraineGEOPOLITICS ALPHA

This report is about grains and farm goods.

Directly affected

  • No company is named in this report.

Indirectly affected

  • DBA Invesco DB Agriculture Fund-6.1% 30d

    Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • WEAT Teucrium Wheat Fund-5.5% 14d

    Teucrium Wheat Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • CF CF Industries Holdings-3.2% 30d

    CF Industries Holdings (agricultural chemicals): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • MOS The Mosaic-24.3% 30d

    The Mosaic (agricultural chemicals): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland-19.8% 30d

    Archer-Daniels-Midland (fats and oils): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

  • DE Deere-0.6% 30d

    Deere (farm machinery and equipment): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story.

Price reaction, T-5 to T+3

TickerT-5T-3T-1T0T+1T+2T+3
DBA+2.11%+1.22%base-0.47%after closeafter closeafter close
WEAT+0.68%+1.09%base+0.34%after closeafter closeafter close
CF+2.69%+5.55%base-2.08%after closeafter closeafter close
MOS-0.76%-0.38%base+4.93%after closeafter closeafter close
ADM+9.32%+8.87%base-0.88%after closeafter closeafter close
DE-3.81%+1.40%base+0.12%after closeafter closeafter close

Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.

Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine World Grain

Source: World Grain

The price since 4 Nov 2026: Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) versus the S&P 500

CompanyWhenMoveStatus
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)that day-0.88%still updating
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)three days earlier+8.87%final price
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)five days earlier+9.32%final price
CF Industries Holdings (CF)that day-2.08%still updating
CF Industries Holdings (CF)three days earlier+5.55%final price
CF Industries Holdings (CF)five days earlier+2.69%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)that day-0.47%still updating
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)three days earlier+1.22%final price
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)five days earlier+2.11%final price
Deere (DE)that day+0.12%still updating
Deere (DE)three days earlier+1.40%final price
Deere (DE)five days earlier-3.81%final price
Mosaic (MOS)that day+4.93%still updating
Mosaic (MOS)three days earlier-0.38%final price
Mosaic (MOS)five days earlier-0.76%final price
Teucrium Commodity Trust (WEAT)that day+0.34%still updating
Teucrium Commodity Trust (WEAT)three days earlier+1.09%final price
Teucrium Commodity Trust (WEAT)five days earlier+0.68%final price

Who gains and who loses around Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)

Companies mentioned with this story

  • DBA Invesco Db Agriculture Fund

    Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine.” Reason on file: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • WEAT Teucrium Commodity Trust

    In “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine,” Teucrium Commodity Trust (WEAT) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Teucrium Wheat Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • CF CF Industries Holdings

    CF Industries Holdings (CF) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine.” Reason on file: CF Industries Holdings (agricultural chemicals): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • MOS Mosaic

    Mosaic (MOS) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine.” Reason on file: The Mosaic (agricultural chemicals): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland

    In “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine,” Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Archer-Daniels-Midland (fats and oils): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

  • DE Deere

    Deere (DE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 4 Nov 2026 story “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine.” Reason on file: Deere (farm machinery and equipment): crop traders and farm suppliers move with grain prices and trade. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

How “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine” reaches Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)

The 4 Nov 2026 story “Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine” names Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) because of this story.

The link for Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA) is this: Invesco DB Agriculture Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

Teucrium Commodity Trust (WEAT) is here too. Its reason reads: Teucrium Wheat Fund: it follows farm commodity prices. Linked by “grain” (grains and farm goods) in this story

Price levels for Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)

CF traded between 110.63 and 123.53 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 116.78. DBA traded between 26.80 and 28.86 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 26.80. WEAT traded between 24.46 and 26.41 across 11 sessions. The latest close on file is 25.07.

A simple score for Invesco Db Agriculture Fund (DBA)

46 out of 100Price not final

“Record grain ending stocks forecast in Ukraine” scores 46 out of 100. The score uses 1 sources, and 6 linked companies. The price is not final yet.