Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election
Published . Updated .
This report is about oil and refining.
Directly affected
- No company is named in this report.
Indirectly affected
- USO United States Oil Fund+8.2% 30d
United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.
- XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR+7.4% 30d
Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.
- CRAK VanEck Oil Refiners ETF
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings+11.0% 11d
ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.
- VLO Valero Energy+9.5% 30d
Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- CVX Chevron+9.9% 30d
Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.
- MPC Marathon Petroleum+10.2% 7d
Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story.
- COP ConocoPhillips+11.7% 30d
ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story.
Price reaction, T-5 to T+3
| Ticker | T-5 | T-3 | T-1 | T0 | T+1 | T+2 | T+3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | -5.13% | -5.78% | base | -1.94% | after close | after close | after close |
| XLENo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CRAKNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| XOM | -2.72% | -2.80% | base | +0.73% | after close | after close | after close |
| VLONo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CVX | -3.75% | -2.77% | base | -0.52% | after close | after close | after close |
| MPCNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| COPNo price data for this ticker | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Closing-price change versus T-1, the last close before the story. T0 to T+3 fill in after each market close. Prices: Alpaca IEX.
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Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election The Center Square
Source: The Center Square
Price since this story was published: United States Oil Fund (USO)
| Company | When | Move | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron (CVX) | that day | -0.52% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | three days earlier | -2.77% | final price |
| Chevron (CVX) | five days earlier | -3.75% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | that day | -1.94% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | three days earlier | -5.78% | final price |
| United States Oil Fund (USO) | five days earlier | -5.13% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | that day | +0.73% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | three days earlier | -2.80% | final price |
| ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) | five days earlier | -2.72% | final price |
Trades by members of Congress and officials in the stocks in this story
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) (jointly held), worth $100,001 - $250,000 on 31 Aug 2026. That is 56 days before publication. Filed 25 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), worth $250,001 - $500,000 on 31 Jul 2026. That is 87 days before publication. Filed 22 Sep 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Kevin Hern sold Chevron (CVX) (jointly held), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 23 Sep 2026. That is 33 days before publication. Filed 13 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar bought Chevron (CVX), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 2 Sep 2026. That is 54 days before publication. Filed 7 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Chevron (CVX), worth $15,001 - $50,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. David J. Taylor sold Marathon Petroleum (MPC), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 22 Sep 2026. That is 34 days before publication. Filed 1 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 26 Aug 2026. That is 61 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Rep. Michael T. McCaul sold Conocophillips (COP) (held by a spouse), worth $1,001 - $15,000 on 24 Aug 2026. That is 63 days before publication. Filed 14 Oct 2026. View the filing.
- Donald J Trump, an executive branch official, bought Conocophillips (COP), worth $1,000,001 - $5,000,000 on 21 Aug 2026. That is 66 days before publication. Filed 8 Oct 2026. View the filing.
Public disclosure filings, not a recommendation. The filing link is the source document. News use of these reports still sits under 5 U.S.C. § 13107(c).
United States Oil Fund (USO) on one side of this energy story
Companies carried with this story
- USO United States Oil Fund
For “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” United States Oil Fund (USO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
- XLE Select Sector Spdr Tr
For “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
- CRAK Vaneck Etf Trust
In “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” Vaneck Etf Trust (CRAK) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: VanEck Oil Refiners ETF: it holds refiners, whose margins move with fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story
- XOM ExxonMobil Holdings
For “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ExxonMobil Holdings (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
- VLO Valero Energy
Valero Energy (VLO) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election.” Reason on file: Valero Energy (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story
- CVX Chevron
In “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” Chevron (CVX) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: Chevron (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
- MPC Marathon Petroleum
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence in the 26 Oct 2026 story “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election.” Reason on file: Marathon Petroleum (petroleum refining): refiners' margins move with crude and fuel prices. Linked by “refinery” (refining) in this story
- COP Conocophillips
In “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election,” Conocophillips (COP) is linked, with no stored direction, medium confidence. Reason on file: ConocoPhillips (petroleum refining): oil producers' profits rise and fall with crude prices. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
How energy news reaches United States Oil Fund (USO)
The 26 Oct 2026 story “Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election” names United States Oil Fund (USO) because of Energy.
For United States Oil Fund (USO), the reason on file says United States Oil Fund: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
Select Sector Spdr Tr (XLE) is here too. Its reason reads: Energy Select Sector SPDR: its price follows crude oil. Linked by “fuel prices” (oil) in this story
Dates in the story, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) price range
USO traded between 141.82 and 169.96 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 169.55. XLE traded between 60.95 and 69.72 across 20 sessions. The latest close on file is 69.32.
How solid the energy case looks
54 out of 100
“Refinery issues, global conflict driving up Midwest fuel prices before election” scores 54 out of 100. The score uses 2 sources, and 8 linked companies.